Currently, the U.S. forecast for GDP is predicting a slowdown, rising by a weak 0.7%, however this number may not yet reflect the U.S. trade-war turmoil and uncertainty.
The next U.S. PCE release is also on April 30th. The current U.S. PCE Price Index year over year is at 2.5%, increasing from its previous number, with the Price Index itself at 125.60 points. Excluding food and energy, Core PCE is at 2.79%. These numbers reflected increases in prices for both goods and services, as well as increases in personal current transfer receipts and compensation.
Forecasts for next week’s report are expected to show a continuation of a higher price trend for both PCE Price Index and Core PCE, as companies start to pass on higher tariff rates to consumers.
The 4th Crop Progress Report of the year is set to be released on April 28th. The most recent USDA Crop Progress Report showed that corn planting was at 12%, soybeans at 8%, and spring wheat at 17% with trade talk of 96 million U.S. corn acres again vs. intentions at 95.3 with the higher-than-average planting pace.
Some U.S. farmers in Iowa/Illinois have been able to plant soybeans before Easter and that can almost guarantee a 5-10 bpa yield bump but the growing season is still very long.
Good-to-Excellent winter wheat ratings were 45%, which was down from the previous weeks at 47%. Expect some corn and soybean planting delays from more rain in the east/south.
The next USDA Export Sales data will be released on May 1st. The most recent data showed a decrease in both grains and livestock, with soybeans showing the most noticeable decline of 50% to a current 277,000 metric tons.
Additionally, pork reached a new marketing year low of 5,800 metric tons for the week ending April 17th – down 72% from the previous week and 82% from the prior 4-week-average.
Expect a continuation of low soybean exports due to trade tensions with China, with soybean oil picking up the slack, driven by strong vegetable oil prices!
Global weak wheat demand remains a key to new lower U.S. wheat futures.
The U.S. Unemployment Report will be released on May 2nd, following the Initial Jobless Claims Report on May 1st. Initial jobless claims rose by 6,000 to 222,000 for the week ending April 19th, suggesting a resilient labour market even with economic uncertainty. Next weeks numbers are forecasted to remain in the same range, between 200,000-225,000, aligning with current trends.
For the U.S. Unemployment Report, economists are predicting a slight increase in the unemployment rate, projecting a rise from 4.2% in March to 4.3%-4.4% in April. Additionally, job growth is expected to decrease, with approximately 67,000 jobs added in the month of April.
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