U.S. Pork Outlook Shifts

December WASDE update shows reduced pork output, mixed price trends, and bullish signals for 2026 exports.

The December 2025 WASDE report, released December 11, signals a shift in U.S. pork market dynamics. Pork production for 2025 has been trimmed due to slower slaughter rates observed through early December. Exports for 2025 are also revised lower, reflecting weaker third-quarter shipments, though stronger fourth-quarter demand partially offsets the decline.

Looking ahead, USDA expects this demand strength to carry into 2026, boosting pork export projections. However, hog prices for Q4-2025 and Q1-2026 have been reduced based on recent market trends, while longer-term forecasts remain unchanged.

“Lean hog futures are continuing to derive some support from global hog/pork supply tightening,” says Moe Agostino, Chief Commodity Expert at Farms.com Risk Management. He points to tighter Chinese hog inventories and the recent U.S. trade truce as factors that could improve long-term export prospects to China.

Additionally, ASF in Spain and seasonal recovery in cattle futures have helped create a V-shaped bottom in lean hog futures—a bullish technical signal indicating a sharp reversal from previous lows.

February 2026 lean hog futures have broken above the 200-day moving average, setting a near-term winter objective of $86.525. After a sharp 27% cash index decline since mid-summer, prices have steadied and are starting to seasonally recover on higher cash and cutouts as the year comes to an end.

While short-term challenges persist, tightening global supplies and better technicals and trade talk of an increased disease pressure in the U.S. Midwest suggests a more optimistic outlook for U.S. pork markets heading into 2026 says Agostino.