U.S. Cattle Supply Shrinks as Drought Intensifies

Cattle Inventory Falls Amid Tight Market and Dry Conditions

U.S. cattle inventory continues to decline, according to the latest USDA report. As of January 1, 2025, the total cattle count was 86.7 million head, reflecting an ongoing contraction in supply.

The decrease affected most categories, with beef cows down while milk cow numbers remained stable. Calf crop numbers dropped by just 35,000 head compared to 2023, slightly above expectations.

State-level changes highlight key trends. Texas saw an increase in total cattle inventory, while Kansas and Nebraska reported declines. Beef cow numbers were up in Texas, Missouri, Oklahoma, and Montana, but fell in Nebraska and South Dakota.  

No state showed an increase in beef replacement heifers, and Texas recorded a significant drop. Drought conditions in Wyoming and along the US-Mexico border could further impact inventory in the coming months.

Total cattle on feed stood at 14.3 million head, a slight decline from last year. Small feedlots in Iowa and South Dakota saw an increase, while Nebraska reported a 70,000-head drop in small feedlot numbers. Feeder cattle outside of feedlots also declined, signaling that herd expansion remains unlikely.

“The take-away story remains that expansion is not yet occurring, and tight supplies will remain supportive of prices,” the report stated. While calf crop numbers exceeded some expectations, limited feedlot placements and ongoing drought conditions suggest that the cattle supply will remain constrained. 

As 2025 progresses, market watchers will focus on feed conditions and trade demand. With supply tightening, cattle prices may stay firm, shaping decisions for producers in the coming months.