Top 5 Key Market Movers to Watch the week of October 8

This week there are 5 key reports to watch that could have significant impacts on commodity markets the week of October 8, 2023. This Farms.com column tracks key events in commodity marketing impacting the agriculture industry! The series of article shares issues to watch the following week, issues that may have an impact on commodity prices in the coming weeks.

By Colin McNaughton
Farms.com Risk Management Intern

1.USDA’s crop progress report will be released on Monday, October 9th. The recent crop progress report showed the pace of the harvest in corn and soybeans was behind the trade expectations. Crop moisture levels have been too high in most areas, leaving less opportunity for harvesting activities. Both corn and soybean harvests are at 23%, with the estimate for the report at 25% for both crops. The 5-year average in corn harvest is 21% and 22% for soybeans. Harvest is ahead of the 5-year average, but it was expected to be much further ahead. Next week’s report could show improvement for those regions where conditions have dried enough.

2. As per normal, the week includes the release of the USDA grains inspected for export report on Monday October 9th, EIA ethanol data on Wednesday, October 11th, and the USDA weekly Export Sales report on Thursday, October 12th. The Grains Inspected for Export report is more significant at this time of the year as getting off to a good start will support the demand outlook. The recent report showed corn inspections at 625,000 MT,000 MT, below this time last year’s number at 683,000 MT. To date, corn inspection totals are at 2.64 mmt, up from last year’s 2.38 mmt. Soybean inspections totaled 663,000 MT, above last year’s 609,000 MT. Total inspections remain 14.6% below this time last year.

3. The U.S. drought monitor map will be updated on Thursday, October 12th. The Midwest remains a main area of focus, especially Iowa, Wisconsin, and now Indiana which saw a 52.5% increase in its D1 drought area on September 26th. This year’s subsoil moisture has been poor throughout the Midwest. Combined with drought this late, soil moisture levels will have to monitored closely as we go into next year.

4. The U.S. government avoided a shutdown the day before the deadline as they passed a spending bill on Saturday, September 30th. The bill did not include any funding towards Ukraine, which was one of the main reasons for the hold out. However, avoiding the government shutdown means that we will be getting the October 12th WASDE report. Not getting the report may have more uncertainty throughout the market. The October WASDE will feature USDA’s latest yield estimates.

5. U.S. Core CPI index (inflation) data for September will be released on Thursday October 12th. The August CPI price index rose by 0.6% from the earlier month, and up 3.7% over the last 12 months. U.S. CPI had been on a downward trend from June 2022 to June 2023. July and August both saw increases though. We wouldn’t want a third straight monthly increase, would we?

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