Top 5 key market movers to watch the week of October 15th 2023

Top 5 key market movers to watch the week of  October 15th 2023
Oct 12, 2023

This week there are 5 key reports to watch that could have significant impacts on commodity markets the week of October 15, 2023. This column tracks key events in commodity marketing impacting the agriculture industry! The series of article shares issues to watch the following week, issues that may have an impact on commodity prices in the coming weeks.

By Colin McNaughton Risk Management Intern

1. Tuesday’s USDA Crop Progress Report showed (October 10) harvest progress in corn and beans took a solid jump from last week’s report. Corn harvest came in at 34%, up 11% from last week, and 3% higher than the 5-year average. Soybeans harvest is significantly ahead of corn, as it is 43% complete, up 20% from last week and 6% higher than the 5-year average. Harvesting activities are set to take a brief pause as rains will sweep through the upper Midwest until Friday. The next report will be released on Monday, October 16th.

2. Next week’s reports include the USDA Grains inspected for export report on Monday, October 16th, the EIA ethanol data on Wednesday, October 18th, and the USDA weekly export sales report on Thursday, October 19th. There was a mistake in the recent grains inspected for export report as there was a double count for soybeans and wheat inspected at U.S. Pacific Northwest ports. The revised figures for the same week are: USDA Weekly Corn Inspections at 550,585 MT, below the expected 740,000 MT. USDA Weekly Soybean Inspections came in at 1,036,223 MT, surpassing the anticipated 660,000 MT. USDA Weekly Wheat Inspections were at 265,242 MT, falling short of the projected 400,000 MT.

3. The U.S. drought monitor map saw no improvement from last week, with the Midwest still seeing significant levels of drought. Iowa saw no change in any category of drought besides a 0.07% increase in D3, which means the state remains 100% affected by drought. The good news is, there will be rains throughout the upper Midwest until Friday, which should help relieve some of the drought seen in those states.

4. Next week on Friday, October 20th, we will have the monthly USDA Cattle on Feed report. Numbers are still below 2022, as cattle and calves on feed for slaughter sit at 11.1 million head, 2% below September 2022. As well, placements in feedlots in August totaled 2 million head 5% below 2022.

5. U.S. CPI was released this week, coming in above the expected 0.3% at 0.4% for the month. Year-over-year change came in at 3.7%, which is also above expectations of 3.6%. On Tuesday, October 17th, Stats Canada will release the September inflation data. In Canada, the CPI rose 4.0% year-over-year in August, a significant increase from the 3.3% in July. Seeing a reversal of this upward trend would be welcome, but...

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