3. The U.S. Drought Monitor Map next Thursday will provide clues on whether the Mississippi water levels will rise by 4-5 feet next week. Today's update showed a solid improvement in winter wheat crop areas. The Ag in Drought report showed 42% of winter wheat is affected by at least D1 drought conditions, down 7% from last week. Although the rains may have slowed harvest, they were necessary for these areas. The eastern corn belt has seen significant improvement recently, as Illinois now sits at just 7% affected by at least D1 drought, a 10% improvement from last week. However, rains are expected to come to an end this week, leaving the door open for drought conditions to worsen in states like Iowa, NE, MN which continues to see extreme drought conditions.
4. All eyes are on the USDA November WASDE report, which is scheduled for Thursday, November 9th. The October 12th report showed a cut in the U.S. corn yield from 173.8 bpa down to 173.0, lower than the expected 173.5. Soybeans also saw a decrease in its yield estimate, down from last months 50.1 bpa at 49.6, also lower than the expectation at 49.9. With U.S. corn ending stocks remaining above 2 billion we would need a sub 170 U.S. corn yield to create a story, or a South American weather scare or crop failure that is looming by the end of the year. A drop in U.S. ending stocks below 200 million bushels would also be bullish for futures.
5. U.S. Meat Exports report will be out next week on November 8th, 2023. U.S. pork exports have been the star in 2023 so we will see if that trend continues, but U.S. beef exports have fallen short of expectations on record prices and less available U.S. supplies.
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