Top 5 key market movers to watch the week of November 5 2023

This week there are 5 key reports to watch that could have significant impacts on commodity markets the week of November 5, 2023. This Farms.com column tracks key events in commodity marketing impacting the agriculture industry! The series of article shares issues to watch the following week, issues that may have an impact on commodity prices in the coming weeks.

By Colin McNaughton
Farms.com Risk Management Intern

1. USDA’s Crop Progress Report will be released on Monday, November 6th. The recent crop report was the first to provide data on U.S. winter wheat conditions, showing 47% was rated as good to excellent, and 18% as very poor to poor. Much better in comparison to this time last year at 28% good to excellent and 35% very poor to poor. Corn and soybean harvest advanced and remain above their respective 5-year averages despite rain. Corn harvest came in 12% higher than last week at 71% complete, 5% higher than the 5-year average, while soybeans are up 9% from last week at 85%, 7% higher than its 5-year average. Weekend rains may have caused delays that are more likely to show in next week's report, so slower progress would not be a shock.

2. Next week's reports include the USDA Grains Inspected for export report on Monday, November 6th, the EIA ethanol data on Wednesday, November 8th, and the USDA Weekly Export sales on Thursday, November 9th. This week’s exports sales report was uninspiring but both U.S. corn and soybean sales still were on target to meet the lowered USDA targets for 23/24 marketing year. Corn sales were down 45% at 748,000 mt, with Mexico remaining as the #1 buyer. Soybean sales came in at just above 1 mmt, also down from last week by 27%.

3. The U.S. Drought Monitor Map next Thursday will provide clues on whether the Mississippi water levels will rise by 4-5 feet next week. Today's update showed a solid improvement in winter wheat crop areas. The Ag in Drought report showed 42% of winter wheat is affected by at least D1 drought conditions, down 7% from last week. Although the rains may have slowed harvest, they were necessary for these areas. The eastern corn belt has seen significant improvement recently, as Illinois now sits at just 7% affected by at least D1 drought, a 10% improvement from last week. However, rains are expected to come to an end this week, leaving the door open for drought conditions to worsen in states like Iowa, NE, MN which continues to see extreme drought conditions.

4. All eyes are on the USDA November WASDE report, which is scheduled for Thursday, November 9th. The October 12th report showed a cut in the U.S. corn yield from 173.8 bpa down to 173.0, lower than the expected 173.5. Soybeans also saw a decrease in its yield estimate, down from last months 50.1 bpa at 49.6, also lower than the expectation at 49.9. With U.S. corn ending stocks remaining above 2 billion we would need a sub 170 U.S. corn yield to create a story, or a South American weather scare or crop failure that is looming by the end of the year. A drop in U.S. ending stocks below 200 million bushels would also be bullish for futures.

5. U.S. Meat Exports report will be out next week on November 8th, 2023. U.S. pork exports have been the star in 2023 so we will see if that trend continues, but U.S. beef exports have fallen short of expectations on record prices and less available U.S. supplies.

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