Top 5 key market movers to watch the week of August 6th 2023

This week there are 5 key reports to watch that could have significant impacts on commodity markets the week of August 6, 2023. This Farms.com column tracks key events in commodity marketing impacting the agriculture industry! The series of article shares issues to watch the following week, issues that may have an impact on commodity prices in the coming weeks.

By Colin McNaughton
Farms.com Risk Management Intern

1. The weekly USDA crop progress report will be released on Monday, August 7th. The latest report showed crops were worse off than expected. Corn conditions came in at 15% poor-very poor, 2% worse than the week prior. Soybeans were also slightly worse as poor-very poor conditions also came in at 15%, 1% worse than last week. Subsoil moisture levels also added to this poor report, as 49% came in as very short to short up 4% from last week. A wetter and cooler forecast for the 1st half of August it it verifies could see these crop conditions improve.

Next weeks reports include the USDA grains inspected for export on Monday, August 7th, EIA ethanol data on Wednesday, August 9th, and the USDA weekly export sales report on Thursday, August 10th. The recent grains inspected for export report showed corn and soybeans still significantly behind last years number, but a considerable increase from last week. Corn inspections came in at 522,000 mt, up from last weeks 329,000 mt, but far from last years 905,000 mt. On the other hand, wheat has continued to perform well compared to last year, as this week’s number came in at 581,000 mt, much higher than last years 282,000 mt.

2. The updated U.S. drought monitor map will be released on Thursday, August 10th. This weeks U.S. drought monitor map update showed conditions were slightly worse across the U.S. However, in specific states that were in poor conditions such as Wisconsin were better this week. Wisconsin saw a 5% decrease in D2 conditions, down to just under 42%. D0 and D1 conditions also were smaller by 2% each. USDA data also showed 57% of U.S. corn and 51% of soybeans were in at least D1 drought conditions, down from 59% and 53% from last week respectively.

3. The 2023 DTN Digital Yield Tour powered by Gro Intelligence is happening next week from August 7th to August 11th. Throughout the week, DTN will be releasing daily bushels-per-acre projections for corn and soybeans in key grain-producing states and at the national level. These projections are provided by Gro Intelligence and are updated daily with the latest data, incorporating a wide range of crop and environmental information, including NASA's satellite imagery, land surface temperatures, rainfall data, USDA crop condition surveys, crop calendars, and weather forecasts. The Digital Yield Tour will also feature written reports and video content with interviews from farmers on the ground, conducted by DTN's reporters and editors. This will provide valuable insights into the current state of agriculture straight from the people who know it best.

4. The USDA’s August WASDE crop report will be released on Friday, August 11th. The July report saw a 4.0 bushel reduction in corn yield, down to 177.5 bpa, while the soybean estimate remained at 52.0 bpa. The expected U.S. corn yield range ahead of this report is 173-177 bpa.

5. The July 2023 U.S. CPI data will be released on Thursday, August 10th. U.S. CPI has been on a steady decline since a peak in June 2022, marking 13 straight reports showing slowed inflation. Last months report showed the year-over-year change in June was 3.0%. The first time we have seen a 3 in front since March. Hopes are that the upcoming report will showcase continued momentum in the U.S. economy.

For daily information and updates on agriculture commodity marketing and price risk management for North American farmers, producers, and agribusiness visit the Farms.com Risk Management Website to subscribe to the program.