Forecasting July and September

Forecasting July and September
Jun 30, 2022

Dr. Simon Atkins provided his predictions to begin the 2022 U.S. Corn Belt Crop Tour

By Diego Flammini
Staff Writer

A heatwave is coming to parts of the U.S. in the first part of July.

“On July 7, that’s when this crescendo of heat is going to come up the plains and pulses like veins of the heat are going to come out into the midwestern states,” Dr. Simon Atkins, a solar scientist with Advanced Forecasting Corporation, said during a June 30 webinar.

Dr. Atkins joined Moe Agostino, chief commodity strategist with Risk Management, to kick off the 2022 U.S. Corn Belt Crop Tour.

Agostino started June 30 in Ohio and will visit 12 states, wrapping up July 23 in Michigan.

The end of July could also see a heatwave.

Mid-June of 2022 was the hottest in nearly 40 years, Atkins said in another webinar.

Modelling shows the end of July could have a similar bout of hot weather.

“We think, that with 74 percent confidence, we’re going to get just another heatwave like the one in mid-June,” he said. “It’s going to be the one blast and then the second one behind it, is going to do a lot of damage.”

Some rain will come during July too.

The western corn belt will get less rain than the lower eastern corn belt. And some parts will have near-normal levels of rain.

“The southern one-fifth of Iowa, southward and eastward, that’s where you’re going to have an okay July,” he said. “If you take your rainfall and slash it in half, that’s going to be your average rainfall for the western corn belt.”

Jumping to September when farmers are starting to think about harvest, Atkins didn’t mince words about what the modelling shows.

Cold weather during the month could cause severe damage to crops.

“I don’t like this, and I’ll be very, very blunt with everybody,” he said. “I’m putting equal weight on the possibility of an early frost or freeze in the northwest corn belt that could absolutely be ruinous.”

The frost could come during the third week of September.

Things happening at the top of the world are responsible for this prediction.

The Arctic is acting strange, Atkins said.

“The Arctic region is intensifying cold like I’ve never seen it in 35 years,” he said. “Something big is going on that’s going to have to drop down and release. I am not painting a good situation for the prairies and the northwest corn belt.”

Dr. Atkins and Agostino will provide regular updates throughout the crop tour.

On Thurs. July 7 and 14 he’ll provide a 15-minute presentation looking at states Chief Commodity Strategist Moe Agostino has visited and will visit on the US Crop tour.

On Thurs. July 21 Dr. Atkins will host a 30-minute wrap-up presentation with insights for the 2022 growing season and review other impacts in other growing areas in the year ahead.

Please note all webinars begin at 7:30 a.m. Central.

Subscribe to our Newsletters

Trending Video