Farmers Grow More Hopeful About Trade and Income

May Sentiment Rises on Improved Outlook for Exports And 2025 Farm Income

Farmer sentiment in the United States improved for the second month in a row, reaching a four-year high in May. The Ag Economy Barometer climbed to 158, the strongest reading since May 2021.

This rise reflects better perceptions of current farm conditions and long-term prospects. The Index of Current Conditions reached 146, while the Index of Future Expectations jumped to 164. A key factor was growing confidence in U.S. agricultural trade.

Export optimism increased sharply, with 52% of surveyed producers expecting higher export volumes over the next five years, up from 33% in April. Only 12% expect a decline in exports.

The Farm Financial Performance Index also rose to 109, reflecting better expectations for farm income in 2025. Still, not all indicators improved. The Farm Capital Investment Index fell to 55, down 6 points, as fewer farmers felt it was a good time to invest in their operations.

Meanwhile, the Short-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index climbed to 124—its highest since March. More farmers now expect farmland prices to rise.

The May survey also explored trade views. While nearly half of producers “strongly agreed” with free trade benefits in 2020, only 28% felt the same in May 2025.

Concerns about tariff impacts have eased, with only 43% seeing them as harmful to farm income, compared to 56% in April.

Labor availability also emerged as a concern. Of the 51% of producers who hire nonfamily labor, 26% expect trouble finding workers due to immigration changes.

“Costs have inflated a lot, and our commodity price is down about 40% in the last three years… and that is a very bad combination when you add a trade war to it,” said one producer.

Despite investment hesitancy and labour worries, U.S. farmers are showing renewed optimism for the agricultural economy.