EIA Says Cold Snap Will Raise Natural Gas Prices

Fresh upgrades support reliable US energy forecasts through 2027

In its December STEO, EIA reported that a winter cold snap will raise natural gas prices to an average of $4.30 per million British thermal units. Higher consumption for home heating is the key driver. EIA also expects global crude oil prices to decline through 2026 and forecasts lower U.S. coal consumption in 2026 as renewable energy use increases. Electricity generation is projected to rise steadily over the next two years. 

EIA also released updated U.S. energy indicators, including falling Brent crude oil prices, stable electricity generation shares, increased liquefied natural gas exports, and slight changes in U.S. carbon emissions. GDP growth is forecast to remain positive through 2026. 

EIA expects global oil inventories to rise through 2026, which will help keep oil prices lower. The agency also forecasts higher electricity generation in regions with fast-growing data center demand, including Texas and the Mid-Atlantic. Coal consumption is projected to increase in 2025 due to higher natural gas prices but decrease again in 2026 as renewable sources expand. 

EIA also updated its Winter Fuels Outlook. Households using natural gas for heating will see higher winter costs due to rising prices. 

The December STEO report is available on the EIA website. The January 2026 edition will include forecasts through 2027. 

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has announced a major modernization of its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) forecasting system. The update will improve how the agency collects, analyzes, and shares energy data. According to EIA Administrator Tristan Abbey, this modern system will better capture the United States’ growing influence in global energy markets. 

The current STEO forecasting model was created more than 25 years ago. EIA will replace it in stages, starting with a new upstream model in the spring and completing the full system by 2027. Improvements will include automated data flows, updated architecture, new visualization tools, and complete documentation to help users understand the forecasts. 

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