Drop in farmer confidence signals economic woes

August barometer marks downward trend in Ag sentiment

The Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer, a measure of U.S. farmer sentiment, saw a stark decrease in August, echoing the sentiment from a challenging period in 2015-2016. The barometer dropped to 100, reflecting deepening concerns among farmers about their economic future.

According to James Mintert, the barometer's lead researcher, the current decline in sentiment is largely due to weaker prospects for farm income, primarily driven by falling crop prices. This issue has escalated to where it rivals the impact of high input costs, historically the leading concern among farmers.

Despite a decrease in anxiety over rising interest rates—only 17% of farmers cited it as a concern compared to 24% last year—overall economic uncertainty remains. This is evident from the reduced Farm Financial Performance Index and the historic low reached by the Farm Capital Investment Index, indicating reluctance towards new investments in farm equipment or infrastructure.

The perception of farmland values also reflected this trend, with a significant number of farmers expecting a downturn in the coming year, leading to a fall in both short-term and long-term farmland value indices.

However, in a sign of underlying resilience, 70% of surveyed farmers anticipate that cash rental rates for farmland will hold steady, suggesting that while cautious, farmers are not uniformly pessimistic about all aspects of their financial future.