Crop report reveals slight reduction in U.S. corn yield estimates–are estimates too high?

Strong likelihood of La Nina could bring drought conditions in 2026

In the latest Ag Commodity Corner+ Podcast, hosted by Farms.com Risk Management's Chief Commodity Strategist Moe Agostino and Commodity Strategist Abhinesh Gopal, the experts reflected on key market trends and forecasts for the week of May 12 to 16, 2025.

This week saw strong momentum in agricultural markets. Corn prices closed at $430, marking a second consecutive week of gains, with a 12-cent increase. Soybeans also saw a 19-cent rise, reflecting positive market shifts.

Meanwhile, canola prices received a boost following an announcement from the Canadian government about a new $370 million biofuel incentive program.

The agricultural markets were further buoyed by new contract highs for lean hogs, despite a drop in live and feed cattle prices, which Agostino views as a correction within a broader bull market.

The USDA’s September Crop Report revealed a slight reduction in U.S. corn yield estimates to 186.7 bushels per acre, with a surprise increase in acreage up 1.4 million and 3.5 million more than the USDA June survey. The report also indicated a rise in exports, with the USDA forecasting U.S. corn exports up 100 million bushels, contributing to the market's optimism.

However, experts noted that early harvests from North Dakota and other states showed lower yields due to frost, drought and disease pressure.

Globally, wheat supplies remain abundant, contributing to bearish sentiment in the wheat market. However, Agostino and Gopal identified the possibility of a short-term bottom, potentially driven by the higher corn market support.

Additionally, the podcast discussed the emerging weather concerns for the 2026 growing season, especially in South America, where a strong likelihood of La Nina could bring drought conditions, impacting crops. Both Agostino and Gopal agreed that while it’s early, this weather pattern could significantly affect crop yields.

As the podcast concluded, they highlighted that the potential drought in both the U.S. and South America for 2026 could disrupt global commodity markets. The team urged farmers to stay informed and prepared for the challenges ahead.

Watch the podcast below.

Photo Credit: NOAA/PMEL

For daily information and updates on agriculture commodity marketing and price risk management for North American farmers, producers, and agribusiness visit things; Farms.com Risk Management Website to subscribe to the program.

Podcast lover who already has a YouTube.com account? To receive notifications when the Ag Commodity Corner+ Podcast is posted each week, be sure to Subscribe to the Farms.com channel, and ensure you have and ensure you have "All" selected. This way you will be notified whenever we post a new video. But remember, you have to be logged in to receive the notifications on YouTube.