Conflict and Weather Drive Grain Markets

Conflict and Weather Drive Grain Markets
Jun 23, 2025
By Denise Faguy
Assistant Editor, North American Content, Farms.com

Canola and Wheat Rally Strong

The global grain market saw strong movement the week of June 16 to 20, with rising prices driven by geopolitical risks, biofuel mandates, and weather-related crop concerns. Soybeans broke higher, gaining 26 cents, and canola reached new contract highs, rising over 12 points.

Corn remained weaker, falling 10 cents, while oats dropped 19 cents.

Soymeal prices dropped due to bearish new U.S. biofuel blending mandates. While meal was lower, soybean oil prices climbed, supporting overall soybean strength.

Canola was also lifted by speculation that it may benefit from new biofuel policies and by drought conditions in Western Canada.

Wheat futures broke out of a three-year bear market as global drought conditions worsened. Major wheat-producing areas like Europe, Russia, Western Canada and parts of the U.S. reported drought and excessive rain that raised quality concerns. Krasnodar, a key Russian grain region, declared a drought emergency.

In the U.S., heavy rains in Kansas and Oklahoma delayed wheat harvest and raised fears of sprouting and quality losses.

Speculative funds remain heavily short on wheat contracts, which may lead to short-cover rallies. Combined fund positions are near record short, indicating room for upward movement as harvest progresses, and weather remains uncertain.

Western Canada's crop prospects are threatened by continued dry conditions, especially in Manitoba. While rain is forecasted, many farmers are still waiting for enough moisture. Canola futures could rise to $800 - 850 if rains fail to meet expectations.

The Iran-Israel conflict and threats to close the Strait of Hormuz have driven up oil prices, adding broader inflationary pressure. About 20% of global oil and 15% of LNG pass through this crucial route.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady, with possible rate cuts delayed to September. Despite global tensions, strong tech stocks are supporting equity markets.

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