Blue attributes this price moderation to several factors. In recent years, with barley in short supply and high prices, livestock feeders sought lower-cost alternatives. Milling wheat, oats, and imported U.S. corn, particularly in the Lethbridge area, have been used to substitute barley in rations.
The global grain market has also influenced barley prices. In 2022, Australia produced a record grain crop. Subsequently, in 2023, China relaxed its restrictive import tariffs against Australian products, which had been in place since the early Covid period in 2020. This shift impacted Canadian barley exports, with totals up to early November 2023 being only 592,000 tonnes, compared to 816,000 tonnes at the same time last year, and 970,000 tonnes in November 2021.
Barley prices in Canada are gaining momentum despite challenges such as reduced acreage and moisture shortages. Statistics Canada estimates an average yield of 55 bushels/acre, down from 70 bushels/acre in 2023. Post-harvest yields were better than mid-summer expectations.
Hay shortage may necessitate straw-grain rations, with barley as a key concentrate. Competitive barley prices could boost exports, and demand for malting barley remains strong, indicating a potential improvement in the crop year.
Blue highlights the impact of imported U.S. corn on feed barley prices, suggesting that some feeders prefer barley even at a premium price. He advises understanding the product, considering cash flow needs, monitoring market conditions, and shopping for the best farm gate price.