Video: Trump-Xi Meeting in 4 Weeks BULLISH + USDA Sept 1 Stocks Report Bearish!
Trump's post about a meeting with XI in 4-weeks with the main topic of discussion the soybean trade was bullish offsetting a bearish USDA Sept. 1 Quarterly Grain Stocks Report that found 200 million more bushels of old crop 24/25 U.S. corn bushels.
The U.S. government shutdown is just more noise, but it does mean no USDA October crop report next week delaying the 2025 U.S. yield forecast by a month. Stocks have traded to new record highs suggesting the shutdown will be short lived but instead continue to chase the AI story.
Trump will announce next Tuesday support for U.S. farmers in the tune of $10 billion. In 2018 the U.S. soybean farmer got $1.65/bu in MFP payments and in 2019 $2.05/bu.
WTI crude oil is breaking below a key support and pivot point at $61.74/barrel.
2025 December corn futures creating a head & shoulders bottom formation.
With Chinese U.S. soybean purchases at 0 for the 25/26 marketing year the trade thinks the rest of the world is filling the gap but it’s worse than 2018! With no weekly U.S. export sales report due to a U.S. government shutdown U.S. corn exports were still estimated at record strong levels.
The trade thinks that 2025 Canadian Prairies canola production is closer to 21 MMT and an average yield of 42 bpa but very large farmers in the garden spot of SE Saskatchewan are reporting below average yields and production to fall back to 19 mmt???