WWU Researchers Work With Local Farmers, Millers, and Bakers to Study the Future of Grain Production

By Jennifer Nerad

In recent years, the popularity of local food movements and the consumer desire for more control over and awareness of where their food comes from has risen. That shows up here in the Pacific Northwest, where interest in locally grown grains has risen rapidly. In fact, the demand, particularly for local bakeries and breweries, has increased faster than grain production.

Grains, especially wheat, are some of Washington state’s top crops, but today, most are grown in the more arid part east of the Cascades. Many don’t know that the region west of the Cascades has a long history of grain agriculture dating back to the late 19th century. WWU researchers analyzed historical records in Whatcom, Skagit, and Island counties and noticed a sudden decline in grain production in the mid-twentieth century. However, whether the cause was cultural or climate-related was unclear.

To answer this question, Natalie Furness (MA, Environmental Studies, 2023), now a GIS Specialist at WWU, and Professor of Environmental Studies Aquila Flower, who teaches geography and is director of the college's Spatial Institute, launched a study. The results have just been published in “The Effects of Climatic and Cultural Changes on Grain Agriculture in Northwest Washington” in the journal Geographies.

The authors mapped out areas with historical and projected climate data, soil types, and land use zoning rules suitable for wheat agriculture. After analyzing this data, they found that the climate in this region remained suitable for wheat agriculture throughout the 20th century, and climatic suitability actually increased in much of this area between the early- to mid-twentieth century. This suggests that the loss of grain-growing practices was due to economic and cultural shifts rather than environmental changes. Shifting priorities towards efficiency and productivity and cultural, political, and technological changes led to a loss of local knowledge of grain agriculture and an inaccurate assumption that western Washington was unsuitable for growing grains.

“We interviewed local farmers and bakers to better understand their decision to begin growing wheat and the challenges they face in doing so,” said Flower. “We found that many of them were concerned with the potential negative consequences of climate change on grain agriculture.”

Using projections of future climate conditions, the researchers found that the areas with an ideal climate for wheat will shift, but much of the prime agricultural land in the region will remain suitable through the late 21st century.

While uncertainty about future climate and economic conditions make it difficult to predict the future of local grain production, the local farming community shows a commitment to resilience and sustainability. 

“We are optimistic that the resurgence of grain agriculture in coastal Northwest Washington is only beginning,” said Flower.