World Grains Production to Exceed Consumption in 2021-22

Total worldwide grains production in 2021-22 will outstrip consumption for the first time in five years, according to updated monthly estimates from the International Grains Council (IGC).

Released on Thursday, the IGC’s Grain Market Report pegged total expected new-crop production of grains (wheat and coarse grains) at record 2.301 billion tonnes, up 9 million from the agency’s May estimate and just slightly above projected consumption of 2.299 million tonnes. If accurate, it would be the first time global grains output has exceeded consumption since 2016-17.

For the current 2020-21 marketing year, production is estimated at 2.216 billion tonnes, versus consumption of 2.237 billion.

Much of this month’s increase in the total grains production estimate is due to an upward revision for corn, up to 1.201 billion tonnes from 1.192 billion in May, along with bigger output for oats and minor grains, including millet and triticale. On the other hand, expected wheat production was trimmed slightly to 789 million from 790 million last month.

Total grains ending stocks for 2021-22 are now estimated at 597 million tonnes, up 2 million from the May estimate and 2 million above 2020-21 but down from 616 million in 2019-20.

However, despite the projected record total grains production for 2021-22 and the slight increase in ending stocks compared to a year earlier, the IGC noted the all-grains stocks-to-use ratio will still fall to an eight-year low of 26%, with food, feed and industrial use all forecast to reach record highs.