Wheat Stocks Just About as Forecast

Total Canadian all wheat ending stocks for the 2021-22 crop year ended up just about as forecast. 

Wednesday’s Statistics Canada grain stocks report put national all wheat stockpiles as of July 31, 2022 (ending stocks for the 2021-22 crop year) at 3.671 million tonnes. That is down more than 38% from a year earlier due to the 2021 Prairie drought that badly crimped output, but almost exactly in line with Agriculture Canada’s August supply-demand projection of 3.695 million. If accurate, it would be the lowest July 31 all wheat stocks level on record going back to 1980. 

The decrease in total wheat stocks was mainly driven by wheat (excluding durum), which fell 39.6% to 3.106 million tonnes – near the Ag Canada forecast of 3.2 million - while durum wheat stocks dropped 30.5% to 565,300 tonnes, versus the government projection of 496,000.  

Nationwide on-farm stocks of all wheat as of July 31 amounted to 970,100 tonnes, a fall of just over 60% from the previous year. Commercial stocks were down less sharply, declining 23.3% to 2.7 million tonnes. At an estimated 70,000 tonnes, July 31 on-farm durum stocks were down about 49% on the year. 

In the wake of last year’s drought-reduced Canadian wheat crop, deliveries of wheat fell 33.5% year over year to 21.1 million tonnes as of July 31, while exports fell 42.5% to 15.1 million tonnes. However, those numbers should rebound in 2022-23, with last month’s StatsCan crop production report estimating the 2022 Canadian all wheat crop at 34.57 million tonnes, up more than 55% on the year and potentially the third largest crop on record.