Weather Update: More Active Pattern Sets in for December

Dec 20, 2022

By Aaron Wilson

Preciptation has increased a bit across the state in recent weeks, ending what was a very dry stretch this fall (Figure 1). Observations indicate 1.5-2 inches have fallen across NW Ohio and in couties just to the southeast of about I-71. Still, about 73% of the state is in abnormally dry to moderate drought according to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor. Temperatures overall are averaging about normal across the southern half of the state and 1-3°F above average across the north, with the typical late fall oscillation between mild and chilly air. For the latest up-to-date conditions, seasonal outlooks, and monthly climate summaries, please visit the State Climate Office of Ohio.

Figure 1: Total precipitation for the period November 21 - December 4, 2022. Figure courtesy of the Midwestern Regional Climate Center

Figure 1: Total precipitation for the period November 21 - December 4, 2022. Figure courtesy of the Midwestern Regional Climate Center.

Figure 2). Precipitation forecast from the Weather Prediction Center for 7pm Monday December 5 to 7pm Monday December 12, 2022.

Forecast

The first in a series of storms this week will be on-going Tuesday morning. Periods of rain showers are expected across the state through Wednesday morning then again Thursday afternoon through Friday night. Temperatures over this stretch will start out with highs in the 40s and 50s, cooling off into the 30s and 40s for the weekend. Another system will start to impact Ohio by Sunday afternoon into Monday. Overall, the Weather Prediction Center is currently forecasting 0.50 (north)-2.00 (south) of precipitation across Ohio this week (Figure 2).

The Climate Prediction Center’s 8-14-day outlook for the period of December 13 – 19, 2022 and the 16-Day Rainfall Outlook from NOAA/NWS/Ohio River Forecast Center have temperatures near to above normal and precipitation leaning wetter than normal (Figure 3). Climate averages include a high-temperature range of 42-46°F, a low-temperature range of 26-30°F, and average weekly total precipitation of 0.55-0.85 inches.

Figure 3) Climate Prediction Center 8-14 Day Outlook valid for December 13 - 19, 2022, for left) temperatures and right) precipitation. Colors represent the probability of below, normal, or above normal conditions.