WASDE: U.S. Pork Imports & Exports Raised While No Change Is Made To The Beef Export Forecast

Jun 11, 2014

The forecast for total meat production in 2014 is lowered from last month as lower beef and broiler production more than offsets increased pork and turkey production. Beef production is lower ed as the pace of steer and heifer slaughter in the second quarter is reduced. However, carcass weights are forecast slightly higher as feed prices have moderated.

Pork : Pork production is forecast higher due to a combination of larger second-quarter slaughter and higher carcass weights for the year. USDA’s Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report will be released on June 27 and provide an indication of producer farrowing intentions for the remainder of the year. Pork imports and exports are raised based on April trade data.

Poultry: Broiler production is lowered from last month as the pace of expansion remains slow. Turkey production is raised on higher second-quarter production. Egg production is raised as strong table egg prices are expected to support increased production. For 2015, no change is made to red meat or turkey forecasts, but the forecast for broiler production is reduced for early 2015. Broiler exports are reduced as production forecasts are lowered from last month. The slower pace of exports is expected to carry into 2015. Turkey exports are unchanged from last month.

Beef: Forecasts for 2014 beef imports are raised as demand for processing grade beef remains strong; no change is made to the export forecast. Cattle, hog, and turkey price forecasts for 2014 and 2015 are unchanged from last month. Broiler prices are raised for 2014 as supplies are forecast smaller, but 2015 prices are unchanged from last month. Egg prices for 2014 are raised from last month as demand remains strong; prices for 2015 are unchanged.

Dairy: Milk production forecasts for 2014 and 2015 are unchanged from last month. Export forecasts are raised on a fat basis for 2014 and 2015 with higher cheese exports. However, growth in 2014 exports is constrained by weaker butter sales as higher domestic prices have made U.S. butter less competitive on world markets. Skim-solids exports reflect strength in cheese and nonfat dry milk (NDM) exports. Imports for 2014 and 2015 are raised on higher imports of food ingredients.  

Cheese and butter prices for 2014 are forecast higher on strong demand for cheese and tight supplies of butter. The NDM price is lowered, but the whey price forecast is unchanged. Strength in butter prices is expected to carry into early 2015 resulting in an increase in the 2015 price, but the prices of cheese, NDM, and whey are unchanged from last month. Class III and Class IV prices for 2014 and 2015 are raised on stronger butterfat values. The all milk price is forecast at $22.90 to $23.30 per cwt for 2014 and $19.75 to $20.75 per cwt for 2015.




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