This month’s U.S. cotton forecasts for 2013/14 show higher production, offtake, and ending stocks compared with the September report. Production is raised nearly 2 percent to 13.1 million bales, due mainly to increases for the Delta and Southeast. Domestic mill use is raised 100,000 bales to 3.6 million based on strong early season activity. Exports are unchanged at 10.4 million bales. Accordingly, ending stocks are increased to 3.0 million, the equivalent of 21 percent of total use. The marketing-year average price received by producers is forecast to range from 69-79 cents per pound, with the midpoint of 74 cents estimated 3 cents below September.
The 2013/14 global ending stocks forecast is raised 1 percent this month, as sharply higher beginning stocks are partially offset by lower production and marginally higher consumption. Stocks are raised mainly in India, as revisions are made to production and loss beginning in 2006/07 to bring historical stocks to levels which cover reported demand (see www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/circulars/cotton.pdf for more details). Production forecasts for 2013/14 are lowered for China and Zambia, but raised for the United States, Brazil, and Greece. Consumption is raised for Vietnam and the United States, but is lowered for Egypt. World stocks are now projected at 95.7 million bales and include 57.8 million bales held by China. This month’s forecasts for China’s consumption and imports reflect the government of
China’s announced policies for the acquisition and release of government reserves, which are unchanged from September
Source: USDA WASDE