COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2016/17 U.S. corn outlook is for increased food, feed and industrial (FSI) use and reduced stocks. Corn used to produce ethanol is raised 25 million bushels to 5,350 million based on the most recent data from the Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production report, and strong pace of weekly
ethanol production during January as indicated by Energy Information Administration (EIA) data. Non-ethanol FSI is raised 10 million bushels. Corn ending stocks are lowered 35 million bushels from last month. The projected range for the season- average c orn price received by producers is narro wed 10 c ents on ea ch end to $3.20 to $3.60 per bushel, with the idpoint unchanged at $3.40. Forecast U.S. sorghum exports are lowered 25 million bushels from last month, reflecting the slow pace of export commitments through January, paricularly to China.
Offsetting is a projeted increse in feed and residual use. Grain sorghum prices are projected to average $2.50 to $2.90 per bushel, down 20 ce nts at the midpoint to
$2.70 reflecting the current weak relationship to corn prices in interior markets. Global coarse grain production for 2016/17 is forecast 1.4 illion ton higher from last month to 1,329.0 million. This month’s foreign coarse grain outlook is for increased production, consumption, and trade relative to last month. Mexico corn production is projected to be record high, as government data indicates higher planted area and a lower level of abandonment following a favorable summer growing season. Sorghum production is lowered as producers reduced plantings in favor of corn due to the prevalence of the sugarcane aphid. Ukraine corn production is raised on a forecast record-high yield, based on the latest harvest results to date. Barley production is lowered for Iran, but raised for Kazakhstan.
Major global trade changes for 2016/17 this month include higher projected corn exports for Ukraine and Canada. Corn imports are raised for Iran and Vietnam, while
sorghum imports are lowered for China. Forecast 2016/17 corn feed and residual use for China is raised, reflecting sharply reduced imports of corn substitutes, relatively low internal market prices and efforts by the government to promote use of domestic supplies. Projected FSI use for China is increased as lower prices and government support are expected to boost domestic use and exports of corn-based industrial products. Foreign corn ending stocks are lowered from last month, with reductions for China and the EU only partially offset by increases for Paraguay and Mexico.
Source : USDA WASDE