COTTON: The U.S. 2016/17 cotton outlook shows larger production, exports, and ending stocks relative to last month. Production is raised 435,000 bales to nearly 17.0 million, due mainly to higher production in Texas. Domestic mill use is unchanged, but exports are raised to 12.5 million bales and ending stocks to 5.0 million. The forecast range for the marketing year average price received by producers is narrowed 1 cent on each end to 65 to 69 cents per pound, with the midpoint unchanged at 67 cents.
Larger production is the main factor driving a 1.5-million-bale increase in projected global 2016/17 ending stocks. In addition to the increase for the United States, production is raised 1.0 million bales for China, where inspection data indicates higher production than previously anticipated for the Xinjiang region, partially offset by a decrease for Pakistan, which is based on ginning arrivals. Consumption is reduced for India, Mexico, and Turkey, mostly offset by an increase for China. World trade is raised slightly, due mainly to higher projected imports by Pakistan and Bangladesh. Higher exports are projected for the United States and India, partially offset by decreases for Uzbekistan and Australia. World ending stocks are now projected at 90.6 million bales.