LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: Estimated red meat and poultry production for 2016 was adjusted to reflect December slaughter data. Total red meat and poultry
production for 2017 is lowered, largely reflecting decreased pork and poultry forecasts.
Beef production is raised. Placements and marketings for the year are raised, resulting in higher cattle slaughter. The January Cattle inventory report estimated that total cattle and calf numbers on January 1, 2017 increased for the third consecutive year. Beef cow numbers were above 2016, and producers indicated they were holding more heifers for addition to the breeding herd. The report also indicated a year-over-year increase in the number of cattle outside feedlots. The January Cattle on Feed report showed higher than expected placement numbers in December, implying that larger numbers of fed cattle will be marketed during the spring quarter. Cattle weights are reduced for 2017 as producers are expected to remain current in feedlot marketings. Pork production in the first quarter is reduced on the current pace of slaughter and slightly lighter carcass weights. Broiler production is lowered as increases in production in the first quarter are more than offset by reductions in the second half of the year. Table egg production is increased on hatchery data and expectations of relatively favorable returns, but this is more than offset by a lowered hatching egg production forecast. No changes were made to turkey production. Livestock trade estimates for 2016 are adjusted to reflect December data. For 2017, forecast beef imports are raised on expectations of higher shipments of processing beef from Oceania. Robust demand for U.S. beef supports higher forecast beef exports for the year. No changes are made to pork, poultry and egg trade forecasts.
Cattle, hog, and broiler price forecasts are raised to reflect demand strength. Turkey prices are forecast lower on current prices. Egg prices are increased on current price strength.
The milk production forecast for 2017 is raised from last month. Improved returns in 2017 are expected to result in a slightly higher forecast cow inventory during the late part of 2017. Milk output per cow is also raised as improved returns are expected to support continued improvements in the quality of dairy rations. Beginning stocks on both a fat and skim-solids basis are raised from last month on December 31 storage data; stocks at the end of 2017 are raised, reflecting increased beginning inventories and higher dairy product production in 2017. Fat-basis imports are reduced as domestic butterfat is expected to be more competitive with the EU; skim-solids imports are unchanged. Fat basis exports are unchanged and skim-solids basis exports are raised slightly. Skim-solids imports are virtually unchanged as weaker exports of nonfat dry milk (NDM) are offset with stronger whey sales. For 2016, milk production, output per cow, trade, and stock estimates are updated based on data
through December.
Cheese and butter price forecasts are lowered as product production is expected to reflect higher forecast milk production and beginning stocks are relatively high. The nonfat dry milk price forecast is unchanged, but the whey price is raised from last month on the strength of domestic and international demand. The Class III price is raised as the higher whey price more than offsets the lower cheese price forecast. The Class IV price is reduced as the butter price forecast is lowered. The all milk price is forecast higher at $17.70 to $18.40 per cwt.
Source : USDA WASDE