LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The forecast for total meat production is lowered from last month per 2017 but is raised for 2018. Beef production for 2017 is lowered primarily on lighter carcass weights which more than offsets higher expected slaughter in the later part of 2017. Higher expected placements support a higher 2018 beef forecast. Pork production for 2017 is lowered on the current pace of second-quarter slaughter and lighter carcass weights. No changes are made to the 2018 production forecast. USDA’s Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report will be released June 29 and will provide an indication of producer farrowing intentions for the remainder of 2017. Broiler production for 2017 is lowered on the pace of secondquarter slaughter. No changes are made to outlying quarters or the 2018 forecast. Turkey production in the second quarter of 2017 is reduced on the current pace of slaughter, and third-quarter production is lowered as weak demand is expected to limit the rate of expansion.No changes are made to the 2018 turkey forecast. Egg production for 2017 is raised on recent hatchery data.
Beef trade forecasts for 2017 and 2018 are unchanged from last month. The pork export forecast for 2017 is unchanged from last month, but the import forecast is raised. No changes are made to the 2018 pork trade forecasts. The second-quarter broiler import forecast is lowered on recent trade data but no changes are made to outlying quarters. No changes were made to the 2017 broiler export forecast, but the turkey export forecast was lowered on continued demand weakness. Poultry trade forecasts are unchanged for 2018. Cattle and hog prices for 2017 are raised from last month on price strength to date and continued price strength in the third quarter. Cattle prices are unchanged for 2018, while hog prices are raised on expected strong packer demand next year. Broiler prices are raised for 2017 and first quarter 2018 on expectations of continued strong demand. Turkey prices are reduced for 2017 and 2018 on weaker-than-expected demand. Egg prices for 2017 are lowered fractionally, but the 2018 egg price forecast is unchanged.
Milk production forecasts for 2017 and 2018 are lowered from last month as lower expected growth in milk per cow more than offsets expected gains in cow numbers. For 2017 and 2018, fat basis exports are reduced on the expectation that current high prices will temper export demand, but skim-solid basis exports are raised for both years on expected strength in nonfat dry milk/ skim milk powder demand. The 2017 fat basis import forecast is raised on stronger imports of cheese and butterfat. For 2018, lower expected imports of some processed dairy products more than offsets higher expected imports of cheese and butterfat, and the forecast for fat basis imports is lowered. The skim-solid basis import forecasts are unchanged. Cheese, butter, and nonfat dry milk (NDM) price forecasts are raised for both 2017 and 2018 on strong domestic and international demand and a reduced production forecast. However, whey prices are reduced from last month for 2017, but raised for 2018. For 2017, the Class III price is raised as the cheese price increase more than offsets the lower whey price, and the Class IV price forecasts reflects higher butter and NDM prices. For 2018, Class prices are raised on higher component product prices. The all milk price is forecast higher at $17.80 to $18.20 per cwt for 2017 and is increased to $18.10 to $19.10 per cwt for 2018.
Source : USDA WASDE