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WASDE : Total meat production in 2018 is reduced from last month

Sep 12, 2018

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LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The forecast for total meat production in 2018 is
reduced from last month on decreases in commercial pork and turkey production. The annual
beef production forecast is unchanged as increases in second-half cattle slaughter are offset
by lighter expected carcass weights. The 2018 pork production forecast is reduced on the
current pace of slaughter and slightly lighter expected carcass weights in the third quarter.
USDA will release the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report on September 27, providing an
indication of producer farrowing intentions into early 2019. The second-quarter broiler

production estimate is raised slightly, reflecting revised hatchery data but no change is made
to outlying forecasts. Second-half turkey production is lowered on recent production data. For
2019, beef, pork, broiler, and egg production forecasts are unchanged; only a small increase is
made to turkey production.

Beef import forecasts are unchanged for 2018 and 2019, while export forecasts are raised on
expectations of continued strong demand to a number of key trading partners. Pork imports
for 2018 and 2019 are lowered from last month. Pork export forecasts for 2018 and 2019 are
raised from the previous month as U.S. pork is expected to remain competitively priced in
international markets. Broiler, turkey, and egg export forecasts for 2018 and 2019 are
unchanged.

The third-quarter fed steer price forecast is raised from last month on current price strength,
but the fourth-quarter forecast is reduced as the pace of marketings is raised. Hog price
forecasts for 2018 are lowered on current prices and pressure from expected abundant meat
supplies. For 2019, the first-quarter hog price forecast is reduced slightly, but the annual price
forecast range is unchanged. Broiler prices are reduced from last month for 2018 and 2019 on
strong competition with other meats. The annual turkey price forecast is reduced for 2018 as
slightly higher third-quarter turkey prices are more than offset by expected lower prices in the
fourth quarter; the 2019 forecast is reduced. The third-quarter egg price forecast for 2018 is
reduced on recent prices, but no change is made to the outlying forecasts.

The milk production forecast for 2018 is lowered from the previous month on slightly lower milk
cow numbers and a slower rate of growth in milk per cow in the third quarter. However, for
2019, the milk production forecast is raised from the previous month on slightly higher cow
inventories. For 2018 and 2019, fat basis export forecasts are reduced from the previous
month on slowing shipments of whey products and a number of other dairy products, while fat
basis import forecasts for 2018 and 2019 are raised on higher purchases of imported butterfat
products and cheese. On a skim-solids basis, the export forecasts for 2018 and 2019 are
lowered on weaker whey products sales to China. Skim-solids basis import forecasts for 2018
and 2019 are raised on continued strong purchases of cheese and other miscellaneous dairy
products. CCC donations reflect the recent pre-solicitation notice for the Trade Mitigation Food
Purchase and Distribution Program.

Cheese, NDM, and whey prices are forecast higher for 2018 while butter prices are lowered
from the previous month. The 2018 Class III price forecast is raised on higher forecast cheese
and whey prices. The Class IV price is raised as higher forecast NDM prices more than offset
lower butter prices. For 2019, NDM and whey prices are raised while the butter price forecast
is reduced from last month. The 2019 cheese price forecast is unchanged. The all-milk price
is raised to $16.30 to $16.50 per cwt for 2018 and $16.75 to $17.75 per cwt for 2019.

Source : WASDE