Rice
U.S. 2014/15 rice supplies at 273.9 million cwt are unchanged from a month ago. All rice domestic and residual use for 2014/15 is unchanged at 131.0 million cwt. U.S. long-grain exports are increased 1.0 million cwt to 69.0 million, bringing all rice exports to 103.0 million. Combined medium- and short-grain exports are unchanged at 34.0 million cwt. The increase in exports is due mostly to an expected increase to markets in the Middle East and South America. The all rice milled export forecast is raised 1.0 million cwt to 68.0 million, and rough rice exports are unchanged at 35.0 million. All rice ending stocks are lowered 1.0 million cwt to 39.9 million with long-grain stocks reduced to 27.0 million, and combined medium- and short-grain stocks unchanged at 10.6 million.
The 2014/15 long-grain rice season-average farm price range is projected at $12.00 to $13.00 per cwt, down 20 cents per cwt on each end from last month. The combined medium- and short-grain farm price range is projected at $18.50 to $19.50 per cwt, down 50 cents per cwt on each end. The all rice season-average farm price is forecast at $14.00 to $15.00 per cwt, down 20 cents per cwt on each end. The drop in the price outlook is due mostly to an unexpected substantial drop in October prices reported by the National Agricultural Statistics Service in Agricultural Prices published on November 26 and price expectations for the remainder of the marketing year.
Global 2014/15 rice supply and use are changed little from a month ago. Global rice production is projected at 475.2 million tons, up 0.2 million from last month due primarily to increased forecasts for China and South Korea, partially offset by a reduction for Indonesia. China’s rice production is forecast at a record 144.5 million tons, up 0.5 million tons from last month, and up more than 1 percent from last year. The revision is based on production estimates recently released by China’s National Bureau of Statistics. Indonesia’s 2014/15 rice crop is forecast at 36.5 million tons, down 0.5 million from last month, but up slightly from 2013/14.
The Philippine 2014/15 rice crop is forecast at 12.2 million tons, unchanged from last month, but up nearly 3 percent from last year. Typhoon Hagupit struck the Philippines on December 6 and tracked through some rice growing areas, but missed the larger producing regions. Initial reports from the government of the Philippines indicated that the storm had little impact on the overall rice crop. However, USDA will continue to assess the damage and offer a more complete supply and use analysis in next month’s supply and demand report. Global rice consumption for 2014/15 is forecast at a record 482.9 million tons, down slightly from last month. Global trade is raised 0.4 million tons based largely on increased imports by Indonesia; with exports raised for Burma, China, Thailand, and the United States. World 2014/15 ending stocks are raised 0.6 million tons, largely due to increases for China and Vietnam, partially offset by reductions for Burma, Indonesia, Thailand, and the United States. Stocks are also raised for Sri Lanka and South Korea.
Source: USDA WASDE