US Wheat: Variable Conditions Likely to Affect Hard Red Spring and Soft White Crops
By Casey Chumrau, US Wheat Associates, Market Analyst
U.S. spring wheat harvest is off to a slow start this year and the quality is variable in the early stages. Too much rain in the northern Plains region and too little rain in the Pacific Northwest has tested the crops.
USDA reported that farmers had harvested 38 percent of spring wheat as of Aug. 31, well below the five-year average of 65 percent. The only state ahead of average is Washington, which has harvested 94 percent of the spring crop compared to the five-year average of 71 percent. Hot weather in June and July sped up the growing season in Washington, where the majority of the crop is white wheat. In the largest hard red spring (HRS) producing state of North Dakota, USDA reports harvest at just 21 percent complete, well below the 60 percent average for the same date and farther behind than all other spring wheat states. The crop was already behind schedule due to slow maturation and heavy rains have stopped harvest several times the past two weeks.
As of Aug. 29, the annual crop quality survey by U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) indicated average HRS protein content of 13.6 percent (12 percent moisture), equivalent to last year's final average. Falling number average was more than 400 seconds. Average vitreous kernel content was 78 percent giving HRS samples collected so far a grade of No. 1 Dark Northern Spring (DNS).
USW’s report bases these results on about 8 percent of all the samples scheduled for analysis. Recent reports from production regions suggest HRS protein levels may now be lower than average. In some areas, there is concern about potential disease pressure and falling number issues. This is an early look at the HRS crop and the final results may be quite different. With such diverse growing regions, the United States produces a wide range of quality — an advantage for wheat buyers — and there have been a number of reports this year of protein levels greater than 14 percent as well as HRS with little to no damage. USDA has lowered the overall U.S. spring wheat rating in recent weeks but still rates 63 percent as very good or excellent, compared to 70 percent very good or excellent at this time last year.
The northern amber durum crop and harvest are also well behind schedule. There will be some bleaching due to the heavy rain but again it is too early to predict the final impact. Very early samples show lower HVAC counts and reduced falling numbers but it may not be representative of the entire crop. According to Jim Peterson of the North Dakota Wheat Commission, a factor that should help limit quality losses in durum is the fact that farmers planted a good portion of the durum later than HRS.
Soft white (SW) winter and spring wheat growing conditions in the Pacific Northwest were very different from growing conditions in the northern tier’s HRS region. Hot, dry weather stressed the SW crop and pushed protein levels higher than normal. USW’s survey results peg average protein at 10.8 percent (12 percent moisture) based on analysis of about half the samples expected. That level is similar to a separate report from the Washington Grain Commission (WGC) of protein levels averaging 11.2 percent for both SW and club wheat. Although rainfall in early August stopped harvest in a few areas, WGC reported that wheat with low falling numbers is not an issue. USDA recently rated Washington spring wheat conditions as 36 percent poor or very poor with 19 percent rated very good or excellent.
As with the 2014/15 soft red winter crop, buyers will need to pay close attention to weekly updates from the USW crop quality survey posted on www.uswheat.org/harvestReport every Friday afternoon (Eastern Time). Importers should be able to adjust their specifications to receive the wheat they need and, as always, their local USW representatives are ready to help them account for any variability.
Source: US Wheat