US soybean exports are to test seasonal records in the next few months thanks to the shortfall in South American production, which will see Brazil's soaring shipments fall into decline.
The US Department of Agriculture's upgrade on Tuesday to 35.1m tonnes in its estimate for domestic soybean shipments in 2011-12 implies a rapid pick-up in the second half of the marketing year, the March-to-August period, Australia & New Zealand Bank said.
Indeed, they will reach a near-record 10.7m tonnes in the period, given that the US has shipped 24.4m tonnes from September to February, the first half of the marketing year.
The data mean that "exports are likely to test historical highs" for the rest of the season, and return to showing year on year increases following a 7.5% decline over recent months, when US soybeans were competing with heavy exports from Brazil, which reaped a bumper 2011 crop.
'Significant export pressure'
For the March-to-May period, the third quarter of 2011-12, exports may match the 6.6m tonnes achieved in 2008 and 2009, ANZ analyst Victor Thianpiriya said.
"Otherwise, this will spill over into significant additional export pressure in the fourth quarter," the June-to-August period.
For this quarter, the US set record exports, of 4.5m tonnes, in 2009.
Meanwhile, Brazil's trade boom, which saw shipments soar 150% in the first half of 2011-12, will fade, to leave exports for the second half down 1% year on year.
'Raise dependence on US'
The comments echo those of Oil World, the German-based analysis group, which on Tuesday restated a forecast that poor South American harvests "will raise the global dependence on US soybeans", even into the first half of 2012-13.
And they follow a string of upbeat soybean export data – until Thursday, when the US reported sales of 636,400 tonnes for the latest week, below most market estimates.
"However, US soybean export sales over the past four weeks are still up 263% year on year," Luke Mathews at Commonwealth Bank of Australia said.
Furthermore, the USDA on Friday, through its daily reporting system, unveiled the sale of 165,000 tonnes of soybeans to China, the top importer, in addition to 115,000 tonnes sold to the country on Thursday, and a further 189,000 tonnes booked to "unknown destinations".
Mr Thianpiriya said: "Bookings for new crop US soybeans have been very aggressive in the past eight weeks and are now on par with last year's record."
The USDA on Wednesday issued further comments explaining the upgrade to its estimate for US soybean exports, which accompanied a 1.2m-tonne downgrade, to 35.7m tonnes, in its expectations for Brazilian shipments.
While exports, as measured by cargo inspections "still lag far behind last season… that export gap has already started to narrow.
"A less pronounced seasonal decline is seen over the second half of the marketing year.
"By late summer, there could even be an upswing in US soybean exports as declining crops in South America force a faster drawdown of stocks there," with Brazil already losing price advantage.