Unclear Future for U.S. Corn Ethanol Jet Fuel

Corn Ethanol Faces Hurdles in Sustainable Aviation Fuel Market Expansion

The U.S. ethanol industry faces mounting uncertainty as it tries to pivot into sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production. Alcohol-to-jet (ATJ) fuel, made from ethanol, holds promise but several hurdles block rapid progress.

U.S. ethanol output reached 16.2 billion gallons in 2024, almost all from corn. Yet, rising electric vehicle use and falling gasoline demand threaten traditional ethanol markets. Export opportunities are also projected to shrink in 2025, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights.

The lack of an approved Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) pathway for converting corn ethanol to jet fuel is a major obstacle. Although a petition is pending, the Environmental Protection Agency’s review process is detailed and slow.

Biofuels must cut greenhouse gas emissions by 50% compared to a 2005 baseline to qualify for D4 RINs. Otherwise, they may only earn less-valuable D6 RINs.

LanzaJet is currently the only U.S. ATJ producer, using sugarcane ethanol imported from Brazil at its Georgia facility. “Soils have been a passion of mine, and I love to share it with others,” said Brandon Hall. However, LanzaJet’s model is facility-specific and cannot yet be adopted by other ethanol producers.

The 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit further complicates matters. Ethanol intended for SAF production earns less value compared to ethanol blended into gasoline, making pricing less competitive against petroleum-based jet fuel.

SAF production in early 2025 has been slow, with less than 30 million gallons produced. The Farmers First Fuel Incentive Act, if passed, would limit 45Z benefits to US-grown feedstocks, helping U.S. corn producers but challenging companies relying on imports. 

Ethanol producers are ready to supply billions of gallons for SAF, aligning with national energy goals, but faster EPA approvals and stronger policies are essential for real progress.