U.S. Weather/Crop Progress

Crop Condition Reports not applicable until Spring 2025.

Highlights:

• • 91% of the corn is now harvested, up 10 points from last week, 13 points ahead of last year and 14 points ahead of the 5-yr average. Sorghum harvest is at 85%, 2 points ahead of last year and 3 points ahead of the 5-year average. Barley harvest is complete. Soybean harvest is now at 94% completed, up 5 points from last week, 5 points ahead of last year and 9 points ahead of the 5-year average.
  • Crop condition reports for corn, sorghum, barley and soybeans will not be applicable until Spring 2025. Winter wheat conditions in the U.S. are showing effects from prolonged dryness with 41% rating G/E compared to 50% at this time last year, and the Poor/Very Poor group at 23% versus 17% last year.
  • In the West, heavy snow is blanketing the central and southern Rockies. Cool, dry weather covers much of the remainder of the western U.S., allowing autumn fieldwork to advance. Northwestern winter wheat seeding was nearly complete by November 3, with only 5% of the intended acreage left to plant in Oregon. Meanwhile, moderate to strong Santa Ana winds persist across parts of southern California, maintaining a significantly elevated wildfire threat.
  • On the Plains, a winter-like storm is unfolding from Colorado southward, with snow providing beneficial moisture for drought-stressed rangeland, pastures, and winter wheat. November 5-6 snowfall in Colorado reached 6.2 inches in Denver and 8.0 inches in Colorado Springs, with additional accumulations having occurred in the latter location since midnight. Dry weather covers the remainder of the Plains, although parts of Texas are bracing for severe thunderstorms later today.
  • In the Corn Belt, temperatures have fallen to more seasonable levels, with Thursday’s highs expected to range from 50 to 60°F. Recent Midwestern rainfall has provided a significant boost in topsoil moisture and has helped to raise previously low river levels in the Mississippi River basin. However, complications from the rain include late-season harvest delays and—in the areas that received excessive rain—river flooding. For example, the Meramec River near Sullivan, Missouri, recently crested 19.71 feet above flood stage to reach its highest level since May 2017.

Outlook:

Despite its proximity to the U.S. Gulf Coast, Hurricane Rafael is forecast to drift westward or southwestward, with no direct threat to areas from Texas to Florida. Meanwhile, a storm system currently affecting southern sections of the Rockies and Plains will drift northeastward, reaching the Great Lakes region late in the weekend. The risk of severe thunderstorms in the south-central U.S. will be greatest later Thursday, with a modest threat lingering into Friday. Snow associated with the storm will end late in the week, while storm-total rainfall could reach 2 to 4 inches in parts of Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas. Totals up to 2 inches could spread as far east as the Ohio Valley and the Mississippi Delta. Elsewhere, precipitation will return across the Northwest during the weekend. The NWS 6- to 10-day outlook for November 12 – 16 calls for the likelihood of near- or below-normal temperatures in the West, while warmer-than-normal weather will prevail from the Plains to the East Coast. Meanwhile, near-normal precipitation in the middle and northern Atlantic States and from southern California to the southern half of Texas should contrast with wetter-than-normal conditions across the remainder of the country.