U.S. Pork Exports Steady in September with Value Record for Mexico; Beef Exports Lowest Since Mid-2020

USDA has released red meat export data for September, which was delayed due to the recent government shutdown. As compiled by USMEF, September data showed a fairly steady performance for U.S. pork exports, matching year-ago value while down slightly in volume. But September beef exports were the lowest in more than five years, with shipments to China effectively halted and exports to other Asian markets also trending lower year-over-year.

“We are encouraged by the robust and resilient global demand for U.S. pork – especially in Mexico, but also in a broad range of international markets,” said USMEF President and CEO Dan Halstrom. “The situation is obviously much more challenging on the beef side, primarily due to the ongoing impasse with the Chinese government, which continues to ignore its commitments under the U.S.-China Phase One Agreement. U.S. industry losses continue to mount as a result of this lockout, and relief simply cannot come soon enough.”

The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) is conducting a Section 301 investigation of China’s implementation of the U.S.-China Economic and Trade Agreement, popularly known as the Phase One Agreement, with a public hearing set for Tuesday, Dec. 16. USMEF submitted comments to USTR detailing China’s failure to meet its Phase One commitments on red meat trade.

Pork exports totaled 233,816 metric tons (mt) in September, down 2% from a year ago. Export  value was steady at $683.9 million, highlighted by the highest value on record for Mexico (nearly $260 million). The value of pork muscle cut exports trended higher in September ($586.2 million, up 1%), but pork variety meat exports declined, due in part to China’s retaliatory tariffs. Excluding China, September pork and pork variety meat exports were 4% above last year.

Through the first three quarters of the year, pork exports were 3% below the record pace of 2024 in both volume (2.16 million mt) and value ($6.16 billion), and down just 1% when excluding China. Exports to leading market Mexico, and to Central America, are poised to reach new annual highs. January-September shipments also increased year-over-year to Colombia, the Caribbean, Hong Kong and Vietnam.

September beef exports were just 80,835 mt, down 22% from a year ago and the lowest since June 2020. Export value was $660.9 million, also down 22% and the lowest since February 2021. Even when excluding China, beef export volume fell 11% year-over-year, due in part to lower production.

January-September beef exports totaled 856,023 mt, down 11% from a year ago (and down 4% when excluding China). Export value was down 10% to $7.03 billion. Exports trended higher to leading value market Korea and to Central and South America, Hong Kong, the Philippines, the Dominican Republic, the Bahamas and Africa. But these gains were more than offset by the steep decline to China and lower shipments to Japan, Mexico, Canada and Taiwan.

Value record for Mexico led strong September performance for U.S. pork

September shipments of U.S. pork to Mexico climbed 16% from a year ago to 106,472 mt, while value soared to $259.6 million – up 26% and the highest on record. Despite heightened competition from Brazilian pork, exports through the first three quarters of the year were 4% above last year’s record pace in volume (888,077 mt) and 8% higher in value ($2.04 billion).

Led by growth in Honduras and Guatemala, pork exports to Central America continued to shine in September, climbing 5% to 13,514 mt, while value increased 6% to $44.5 million. Through September, exports to the region soared 20% above last year’s record pace in volume (131,771 mt) and were 23% higher in value ($422 million).

For the third consecutive month, September pork exports to South Korea trended higher than a year ago, with shipments up 12% in volume (11,311 mt) and 7% in value ($38.1 million). January-September shipments to Korea were down 7% at 158,482 mt, with value 12% below last year’s record pace at $511.7 million.

Other January-September results from U.S. pork exports include:

• Although pork exports to Colombia slowed in both August and September, January-September shipments remained 6% above last year’s record pace in volume (95,311 mt) and 8% higher in value ($275.5 million).

• Led by a doubling of shipments to Cuba and larger volumes to the Bahamas, Turks and Caicos, Bermuda, Jamaica and French West Indies, pork exports to the Caribbean increased 2% from the first three quarters of last year to 92,457 mt, while value was up 6% to $284 million. Demand has remained strong in the Dominican Republic, the region’s largest destination for U.S. pork, but exports were modestly lower in both volume (66,313 mt, down 5%) and value ($195.9 million, down 2%).

• Pressured by a weak yen and other headwinds, January-September pork exports to Japan were 9% below last year at 235,083 mt, while value fell 12% to $937.4 million. Japan recently suspended pork imports from Spain due to findings of African swine fever (ASF), which could create growth opportunities for the U.S. industry.

• ASF-related opportunities could also emerge in the ASEAN region, where Malaysia and the Philippines have also temporarily suspended imports of Spanish pork. January-September shipments to the ASEAN were 8% below last year at 56,409 mt, while value fell just 1% to $132.2 million.

• While most U.S. pork plants are eligible to ship to China, retaliatory tariffs and uncertainty have weighed on 2025 exports. China’s total tariff on U.S. pork and most variety meat was 57% for much of this year (and prohibitively high at 172% in April-May), before recently being reduced to 47%. China’s Most Favored Nation tariff rate is 12%. China has also retaliated on imports from Canada and the European Union this year, while U.S. pork has been subject to an extra 25% Section 232 retaliation since 2018. Through September, U.S. exports to China – the majority of which are pork variety meat – fell 18% from a year ago (when the total tariff rate was 37%) at 278,065 mt, while value declined 19% to $650.6 million. China’s pork production is also record-large and consumer confidence is lacking.  

• September pork export value equated to $62.29 per head slaughtered, down 4% from a year ago, while the January-September average was $65.17, down 1.5% from last year’s record pace. Exports accounted for 27.8% of total September pork production and 24% of muscle cuts, down from 29.6% and 25.4%, respectively, in September 2024. The January-September ratios were 29.7% of total production and 25.9% for muscle cuts, each down slightly from a year ago.