Two Years of Fall Drought Impacting Marketing Strategies

By James Mitchell

Over the past two years, drought conditions have worsened rapidly each September, coinciding with the start of fall marketings for calves and cull cows. Typically, large volumes of these cattle come to market in October and November, following a well-established seasonal pattern. This influx of cattle puts downward pressure on prices, with October historically seeing the lowest cattle prices of the year. However, drought pressure has likely caused producers to adjust their marketing strategies. A closer look at state-level auction receipts can provide insight into how these changes are playing out.

The first graph in this article (above) shows monthly feeder cattle auction receipts for Arkansas, Kentucky, Missouri, and Mississippi. In 2021 (red line) and 2022 (green line), the seasonal peak in receipts occurred, as expected, in October and November. However, in 2023 and 2024, receipts increased earlier, with a significant rise in September, likely due to drought-induced early marketings of calves. In Arkansas, for example, September 2024 auction receipts are 8 percent lower than in September 2023 but 38 percent higher than in September 2022. Missouri’s receipts are up 2 percent year over year for September, and a similar pattern is seen in Kentucky.

The second graph (below) displays monthly slaughter cattle (cull cows) auction receipts. In each of the four states, there is a clear seasonal peak in October. However, receipts are noticeably lower this year compared to 2021 through 2023. This serves as a stark reminder of how heavily the beef cow herd was culled last year, with auction receipts significantly higher throughout all of 2023.

As Josh discussed in his article a few weeks ago, part of the downward pressure on prices is due to the normal seasonal pattern. However, drought conditions have impacted the fall cattle market for the past two years, causing this seasonal price pressure to occur earlier than usual. With fewer cattle available this year, the market will continue to reflect tighter supplies for the remainder of the year and into 2025.