By Dennis Brothers
A few weeks ago, the current state of beef and pork prices was addressed in Southern Ag Today. Poultry, namely chicken and turkey, make up the bulk of the remainder of the American animal protein diet. Chicken is at the top of the list, with over 100 pounds per capita annually consumed. Turkey, on the other hand, is last on the consumption list.
However, Thanksgiving is Turkey’s time to shine. This seasonal demand certainly affects price, but it is also part of the turkey production schedule. Late May or early June placements of young toms are targeted to be ready to hit the fresh market for Thanksgiving. August placements would target smaller young hens. So far in 2025, poult placement is down every month leading up to August compared to last year. Also, turkey egg set was lower in most months in 2025 compared to 2024. However, July eggs set in hatcheries for August poult placement are up 1 percent over last year. Depending on the hatch, these eggs could bolster more fresh birds ready for the table in November. But overall, there have been fewer poults placed in 2025, likely meaning fewer fresh young toms and hens, which could lead to higher prices this holiday. The frozen market, while seasonally trending up, has less pounds of turkeys in cold storage compared to years past (Fig. 1), which also suggests a lower supply this holiday season.
With lower supply usually comes higher prices. In Fig. 2, we see that, for both large and small lot purchases, fresh turkey prices are higher in 2025 than in 2024. Although large quantity buyers were steady at $1.40/lb going into fall, those prices may increase over the next month as availability dwindles, and holiday inventory build begins. In fact, early September trading is trending in the $1.55/lb area. Many of these birds may be going into cold storage for Thanksgiving sales.