Top 5 Key Market Movers to Watch the week of July 9th, 2023

This week there are 5 key reports to watch that could have significant impacts on commodity markets the week of July 9, 2023. This Farms.com column tracks key events in commodity marketing impacting the agriculture industry! The series of article shares issues to watch the following week, issues that may have an impact on commodity prices in the coming weeks.

By Colin McNaughton
Farms.com Risk Management Intern

1. The weekly USDA crop progress report will be released as per usual on Monday, July 10th next week. After some improvements in U.S. crop conditions this past week look for a further drop as weather remains dry in the U.S. Midwest for the next 7 days as we enter corn pollination. Top and soil moisture levels will continue to get depleted after last week’s Derecho storm provided some relief.

2. Next week’s USDA reports will be released as per usual, including the USDA grains inspected for export report (Monday, July 10th), USDA weekly export sales report (Thursday, July 13th), and the EIA ethanol data (Wednesday, July 12th). The recent grains inspected for export report showed improvements in corn, soybeans, and wheat compared to last week. We saw increases of 16.7%, 71.2%, and 64.5% respectively from last week. Continued momentum will be the focus to see if we can push back closer to last year’s numbers.

3. The latest drought monitor map update showed less improvement than anticipated. Widespread rains in the Midwest last week had limited impact on the overall U.S. drought situation, with drought percentages resembling 2012. There is potential for more rain in parts of the Corn Belt due to a slight change in weather patterns, but the northern Corn Belt is unlikely to see much relief in the next seven days. The National Drought Mitigation Center reports that 67% of the U.S. corn crop down 3% and 60% of soybeans are still in drought down 4%, with minimal improvements despite the crops entering the tasseling stage.

4.The monthly WASDE July crop report is set to be released on Wednesday, July 12th, and all eyes will be on the corn yields per acre. The USDA June crop report kicked the can down the road and kept the 2023 U.S. corn yield unchanged at 181.5 bushels per acre. However, with persistent drought throughout the month of May/June and now July especially within the U.S. corn belt, expect this number to drop. We have had some rain recently, but not enough to reverse the impact that the drought has had on the crops. The trade and markets are trading a 175 bpa bit will the USDA surprise to the downside?

5. U.S. CPI and U.S. Fed meeting is scheduled for July 12th, 2023. A larger than expected jobs report in June double vs. expectations has the markets spooked on fears that there will be more Fed tightening ahead. Unless the labor market cools down some experts argue that the U.S. Fed will no stop raising interest rates as it tries to cool off an overheating U.S. economy.

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