Strong crop prices needed to grow 2018 receipts

Crop receipts declined 6.1% at the national level in the first quarter of 2018 compared to the same time a year ago. But because each province features a different crop mix, the trends in revenue have differed in each (Table 1). In the last quarter, changes in provincial crop receipts ranged from 7.0% growth in Nova Scotia’s revenues to a 9.4% loss in Alberta’s revenues.

Strengthening apple and blueberry prices helped push up Nova Scotia’s receipt growth – although they remain below the 5-year average. But the prairie provinces’ crop revenues, which account for 79% of total Canadian crop revenues, play the biggest role in the overall national story to date in 2018. With smaller volumes of grains and oilseeds marketed in the first three months of 2018, Alberta and Saskatchewan recorded declines in revenue, pushing down the national average. 

2018 crop size will matter

Early estimates suggest crop receipts may shrink in 2018. Most revenue in the first three-quarters of 2018 will come from 2017’s crop production, a year that saw record canola and soybean production.

But while a disappointing 2018 crop would certainly lower receipts from 2017 levels, healthy production in 2018 could lift revenues in the fourth quarter enough to produce year-over-year revenue growth. That lift would represent the seventh time in ten years Canadian crop producers have recorded revenue growth. At this point, there’s still uncertainty around growing conditions across the country, but the good news is that concerns around dryness in parts of the Prairies have lifted recently.