Soybean Ending Stocks Rise with Larger Production

The USDA has raised its 2023 US soybean yield and production estimates from last month, with ending stocks rising commensurately.  

Thursday’s USDA supply-demand update raised this year’s average expected national soybean yield to 49.9 bu/acre, up 0.3 bu from the October estimate and last year. With harvested area holding unchanged at 82.8 million acres, the higher yield bumped the production estimate to 4.129 billion bu, up 25 million from last month but still 3% below a year ago.  

The USDA made no changes on the demand side - leaving the expected crush at 2.3 billion bu and exports at 1.755 billion bu – meaning the increase in production dropped right to the bottom line to boost the 2023-24 ending stocks estimate to 245 million bu, still below 268 million a year earlier and 274 million in 2021-22. 

Going into today’s report, most traders and analysts were expecting relatively little change in the soybean balance sheet from last month, with ending stocks seen rising just a couple million bu. Futures were trading about 20 cents lower in the nearby contracts following the report’s noon hour release. 

Wisconsin experienced one of the sharper yield increases compared to a month earlier, up 5 bu/acre to 49 bu/acre. On the other hand, Nebraska was cut 3 bu to 51 bu. Illinois and Indiana were steady from a month ago at 61 bu/acre, while Iowa was unchanged at 58 bu. The average expected yields for Michigan and Ohio were raised 1 bu each to 47 and 58 bu/acre, respectively. 

Meanwhile, despite some spotty weather in Brazil, including too much rain in the south and excessive heat and dryness farther north, the USDA held its 2023-24 Brazil soybean production estimate unchanged from October at 163 million tonnes, up from 158 million last year and potentially a new record high. In Argentina, where conditions are relatively better but still not perfect, the USDA also left its production estimate unchanged, holding at 48 million tonnes. That is up sharply from the previous year’s drought-ravaged Argentine harvest of just 25 million. 

China’s expected soybean imports for 2023-24 were left unchanged at 100 million tonnes, down just slightly from a year earlier. 

World soybean ending stocks were reduced to 114.51 million tonnes this month, down from 115.62 million in October but still up from 100.31 million the previous year. 

The 2023-24 estimated season average soybean price, at $12.90, was left steady from last month but is well below last year’s $14.20.