The researchers analyzed cultivar time-to-maturity against environmental variables, including temperature, day length, and elevation, using a statistical method known as a generalized additive model (GAM). The model was able to predict soybean time-to-maturity within 10 days for cultivars planted across Africa.
"The methodology we implemented is quite innovative, introducing data-driven algorithms and conventional breeding statistics to capture interactions between cultivars and environment in different areas," Marcillo says.
It was important to use a new statistical method to analyze the multi-environment dataset, according to Nicolas Martin, assistant professor in the Department of Crop Sciences and co-author on the study.
"Multi-environment trials allow breeders to analyze crop performance across diverse conditions, but also pose statistical challenges because of unbalanced data. Modern statistical methods, including GAM, can flexibly smooth a range of responses while retaining observations that could be lost under other approaches," he says.
The researchers found environmental factors, specifically daily minimum temperature and change in day length between planting and maturity, were far more important than genotypic differences in predicting time-to-maturity.
"Our study is the first systematic quantification of the effects of these two drivers in Africa," Marcillo says. "We know how temperature and day length affect maturity timing in the U.S., Brazil, and Argentina, but in Africa it's quite a big unknown. If we sent farmers cultivars from these regions, their environments might speed up or slow down maturity quite a bit. This knowledge is a big gain for Africa."
Michelle Da Fonseca Santos, who manages the SIL-PAT trial, notes minimum temperature depends on different factors in Africa compared to soybean-growing regions in North and South America.
"Low temperature is inversely related to elevation. In North and South America, we don't have much variation in elevation, so it's easy for us to divide maturity groups by latitude," she says. "But in Africa, for example in Kenya, if we try to plant the same lines in high elevation locations, they take forever. So we might need to use different lines for different regions depending on elevation."
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