Updated StatsCan Acreage Eye-Opening
Amid all the other uncertainty about pulse crops in 2025, we now have bit more clarity about seeded area. StatsCan has released updated acreage numbers based on a large survey of farmers and although its estimates are always debatable, they provide a good starting point.
StatsCan estimated 2025 seeded area of peas at 3.50 mln acres, up 9% from last year and the most since 2021/22. Clearly, farmers weren’t scared off by Chinese import tariffs and the prospect (at the time of seeding) of tariffs by India. Green pea area rose to 520,000 acres, 12% more than last year, and yellow pea area expanded to 2.74 mln acres, up 6% from the previous year. The biggest percentage change showed up in the “other” category, which includes maple peas. Seeded area of minor classes was reported at 240,000 acres, 55% more than last year and a new record.
While yields are far from certain, the increased pea acreage has the potential to cause supplies to expand for 2025/26. Larger old-crop carryover and a bigger 2025 crop would mean sizable supplies, which means next year’s export outlook becomes even more important. If exports to China and India are reduced, 2025/26 ending stocks could end up very large.