Pulse Market Insight #238

There’s been a flurry of information coming out of StatsCan the last few weeks. In our previous Pulse Market Insight, we talked about StatsCan’s initial crop estimates, and it has already issued another update based on satellite vegetation images from the end of August. Last week, StatsCan also issued its estimates of July 31 ending stocks, including supply and disposition tables for each crop. The combination of carryover from 2022/23 and the 2023 crop provides an idea of supplies for 2023/24, although there are always questions about the data.

For peas, StatsCan reported July 31 inventories just under 500,000 tonnes, including 300,000 tonnes in farmers’ bins. This is on the higher side of recent history but in reality, it’s still only a small part of 2023/24 supplies. These larger stocks aren’t as important this year, given the big drop in the 2023 crop. These carryover supplies help offset some of the production decline but certainly not all of it.

StatsCan’s added a bit to the 2023 pea crop in its latest estimates, now at 2.27 mln tonnes versus 2.19 mln back in August. This is still 34% smaller than last year and only slightly larger than the 2021/22 crop. The combination of old-crop carryover and 2023 crop means supplies of 2.8 mln tonnes, almost a million less than last year and in line with 2021/22. Based on acreage data, we expect supplies of green peas to be relatively tighter than yellows.