Beef prices keep climbing
Retail beef prices continue to set records. Anderson said the Consumer Price Index, which he considers the monthly measurement of average prices and inflation, indicates consumers have been dealing with beef prices creeping higher and higher across cuts.
Wholesale beef prices continue to climb, some cuts more than others, he said. Wholesale Choice ribeye steaks were $9.75 per pound at the end of April 2024 but reached $14.18 per pound the same week this year. Strip loins, another popular steak cut, are $10.72 this year compared to $9.28 per pound last year.
Retail prices for lean ground beef, which includes lower-cost cuts and trimmings, took a similar path – $6.73 per pound last year to $7.48 per pound this year, Anderson said. A pound of ground beef was $4.50 in April 2019.
Briskets skyrocketed in price over recent years as interest in low-and-slow barbecue boomed. But prices on the popular cut experienced a relatively small increase in wholesale markets compared to last year and remained lower than previous peaks.
Anderson expects the latest year-over-year price spike could rise more as grilling season begins and demand increases.
Lower beef production pressures supplies
Higher input costs for beef cattle production have slimmed margins for Texas ranchers, but high cattle prices have been relatively good for producers, Anderson said.
However, beef production is down over recent years, he added.
The U.S. cow herd remains the smallest since 1961. Multiple years of drought in Texas, which accounts for more than 14% of beef cattle nationally, factored into that decline. Fewer cows going to market puts pressure on supplies and ultimately pushed prices upward at grocery stores, Anderson said.
“Beef cattle weights are up overall, which helps mitigate the effect of a smaller herd, but there are still only two briskets and so many rib-eyes per head,” he said. “A lot of ground beef comes from cull cattle, and the low herd numbers and lower production translate into tighter supplies of ground beef.”
Chicken prices fly, pork prices wallow
As beef production decreased, other meat options favored during grilling season like chicken and pork have increased. However, Anderson said higher pork and poultry production have not translated into the same price paths for those options.
Despite more production of broiler chickens — the birds that end up in grocery stores and restaurants — and increased supplies to meet demand, prices are still going up, he said. Wholesale boneless, skinless chicken breasts were $1 higher per pound than this time last year – $2.75 per pound compared to $1.75 per pound.
Legs, another favorite for summer grilling, were 88 cents per pound compared to 72 cents per pound last year.
“That’s not much of a change compared to recent years, but it shows the underlying differences in the market for meats we consume – beef production goes down, prices go up; chicken production goes up, prices still go up,” he said. “There are different market pressures at play, even down to the cut, whether it’s rib-eye steaks and briskets or chicken breasts and legs or wings.”
Pork on the other hand increased production and prices dipped, he said. At wholesale, pork loins were 99 cents per pound last week compared to $1.30 last year, and spareribs were $1.53 per pound compared to $1.79 per pound. Retail pork chops were $4.34 per pound last year and were $4.26 per pound this year.
Meat demand remains strong
Anderson said the pork industry has struggled to find profitability amid poor prices. But it makes pork a value option for consumers.
There is no data suggesting higher prices are turning consumers away from beef to chicken or pork, Anderson said. The per pound price differences give consumers grilling options, and the ability to find even better deals at grocery stores through discounts or specials going into the Memorial Day holiday and beyond.
“There is some evidence that people are buying what they want despite concerns about the overall economy,” he said. “Meat demand has been quite strong, which means people are paying those higher prices. We’ll have to see whether that changes if seasonal demand pushes prices further.”
AgriLife Extension district reporters compiled the following summaries:
Central
Recent rainfall significantly improved conditions across the district. Some areas received 10-14 inches over a two-week period. Topsoil moisture was in good shape though deeper moisture remained limited. The precipitation boosted pasture growth and greened up rangelands, filling stock tanks and creating localized flooding. The wet conditions temporarily delayed wheat and oat harvests and hindered field access for fertilizer application and weed control. Crops showed mixed progress — corn generally developed well and entered the critical silk and pollination phases, wheat matured appropriately despite some fields showing storm damage, and cotton growth was slightly delayed by cooler, wet conditions. Severe weather in one county included an F-1 tornado, hail damage to wheat, oats and corn in isolated areas, and flooding that submerged some pastures. Livestock remained in good condition around the district, benefiting from improved grazing conditions, while the cattle market stayed strong with high prices. Pecan orchards were seeing pecan nut casebearers. Hay producers fertilized meadows and sprayed for weeds, and Bermuda fields looked particularly promising.
Rolling Plains
Ample rain across the district led to significant improvements to the wheat crop and livestock grazing pastures. The district needed some dry days to get equipment into fields to finish preparing for cotton and hay planting and to start cutting and baling hay wheat that was ready. Fall-born calves were on track to have heavy weaning weights as spring calving neared its end. Livestock drinking sources were in good shape going into the early summer. Producers were optimistic overall. Producers reported increased feral hog activity and damage to wheat fields.
Coastal Bend
Scattered rains fell with totals between 0.5-1.3 inches. Some areas still needed moisture. Fieldwork was limited to aerial applications. Warm weather should give crops and pastureland a big boost. Corn was at or approaching its reproductive stages, and water demand was increasing. Corn conditions improved with recent rains, and fields were in good shape. Weed control remained a priority due to earlier dry weather affecting herbicide performance. Fertilizer was applied in the last few weeks, and herbicides were being applied. Most pecan producers sprayed for pecan nut casebearer as wind allowed. The pecan crop was starting out well, with heavy nut sets reported. Rangeland and pasture conditions improved significantly and were good. Hay fields were green and growing, with some early hay cuttings already made. Cool-season forages were being cut. Livestock continued to gain condition, and supplemental feeding continued but was expected to decrease with warm-season forage growth. Cull cow and calf prices were excellent.
East
Soil moisture improved significantly, and some counties remained oversaturated. Angelina County reported 9 inches of rainfall over seven days. Pasture and rangeland conditions were good overall. Subsoil and topsoil conditions were adequate. Producers in drier areas began to work pastures where possible. Cattle markets remained strong. Livestock were in fair to good condition with little dietary supplementation taking place. Feral hog control was underway, and producers repaired damage from the pest.
Southeast
All counties reported significant rainfall, with some areas in Burleson and San Jacinto counties receiving over 8 inches. This widespread precipitation led to saturated soil, improved pasture conditions and full ponds. Walker and Madison counties experienced flooding in low-lying areas. Soil moisture levels were very short to surplus. Overall crop health remained fair to good. Livestock were in good health, and forage conditions improved as pastures began transitioning to summer grasses. Pastures were very poor to excellent. Oat and wheat fields were in fair to good condition. Corn was 100% emerged and in good condition. Sorghum was planted, and rice planting halted due to wet weather. A few areas experienced hail, though damage appeared to be minimal. Rice planting stopped due to wet weather.
South Plains
Some areas received 3-4 inches of rainfall at the beginning of the week. The week ended with fair conditions and a warming trend in the forecast. Conditions were favorable for planting as soon as fields were dry enough to get planters rolling. Producers were planting some corn for silage and others for grain. In places where early corn was planted, emergence looked very uniform. Soil temperatures were still too low for cotton planting. Silage was being chopped as fields reached the correct moisture content, and more was expected with drying weather conditions. Winter wheat was being grazed, and fields going to grain were headed, flowering and setting grain. Pastureland was greening up and cattle were in good condition.
Panhandle
The district received a good general rain with most counties reporting 2-3 inches. Crop and livestock conditions improved as a result. Producers were waiting for conditions to dry enough to access fields. The cotton planting window may be extended following the rain. Wheat looked good and the recent rains made a huge impact on crop conditions. Corn was progressing, and sorghum planting should get underway at the end of May and the first week of June. Moisture conditions were very good, but more rain will be needed soon to keep new crops progressing. Overall, soil moisture was adequate. Pasture and rangeland conditions were fair to good, and crops were in fair to good condition.
North
The counties reported very poor to excellent pasture and rangeland conditions with most areas in fair to good condition. The subsoil and topsoil moisture levels were adequate to surplus. Some counties experienced heavy rain and scattered showers with warmer temperatures but cool, cloudy days with cooler nights. The rain created some flooding and very wet field conditions in some areas. Livestock conditions were fair to excellent. Feral hogs were active. Most counties reported planting of corn, rice, sorghum, peanuts and soybeans. Crops were in fair to good condition. Wheat and oats were in good condition. Some very light rust and some Septoria blotch were present but not considered a major threat. Some fields and hay pastures suffered from drying conditions, which delayed harvesting. Hay producers made a first cutting, which was a mix of ryegrass, weeds and Bermuda grass. Fly numbers were on the rise.
Far West
Scattered showers delivered moisture with some areas receiving significant rainfall, averaging almost 4 inches, while others remained dry. The moisture improved soil conditions, aiding early cotton plantings and promoting pasture growth. However, high winds quickly dried out the upper soil layers, leaving subsoil moisture levels variable. Hail damage affected some corn acres. Livestock remained in fair condition, with supplemental feeding continuing in drier areas. Temperatures were below normal, coupled with moderate to strong winds and higher-than-average humidity, and more rain was needed. Parts of the district were slowly healing from drought conditions, and producers were closely monitoring crop and livestock health as summer approached.
West Central
Scattered rain early in the week delivered 0.5-8 inches to most parts of the district. Many areas received slow, soaking rainfall, and temperatures were cooler. Soil moisture levels improved. Rainfall dramatically increased rangeland and pasture conditions and quality, but many areas needed runoff water to replenish stock ponds. Producers were fertilizing improved pastures. Bermuda grass production was slow due to cooler temperatures, but should pick up with warmer, sunnier days. Cattle were grazing grasses. Spring cattle work continued. Cattle looked good and were putting on weight. Overall, livestock were in fair to good condition. Wheat going to grain was fully headed, but rainfall came too late to help yields. Haygrazer was planted before the rainfall and was off to a good start. Corn planting continued. Row crops were being fertilized. Rainfall helped conditions for irrigated and dryland cotton fields expected to be planted soon. Pecan trees should benefit from the rain.
Southwest
Heavy to spotty thunderstorms crossed the district. Some areas received substantial rainfall, with measurements up to 3 inches, while others received none. The moisture improved rangeland and pasture conditions, but drought conditions persisted. Row crop conditions remained less than ideal due to drought. Pest pressure in pecans appeared low. Oats were fully mature, and irrigated winter wheat was faring well. Corn producers were fertilizing crops. Some early planted corn started to tassel but was not expected to produce much. Early planted sorghum was beginning to head out in some areas. Additional rainfall will be needed soon to sustain crop improvements. Livestock were grazing more but still relied on supplemental feed. Livestock conditions remained fair to good.
South
Conditions across the district were favorable. Some isolated storms delivered trace amounts of rain up to 5-plus inches. Rains were heavy and short-lasting, and caused some isolated flooding. Creeks were running. Some hail was reported but caused minimal damage. High temperatures for the upcoming week were expected to reach above 100 degrees. Strawberries were slowing down, and some producers had terminated their crops to prepare for next year. Hay was being cut and will be baled. Wheat, grain sorghum and corn that survived the flooding rain last month were progressing well. Some sorghum fields were showing chlorosis. Cotton acreage was lower than normal and additional fields were taken out of production due to the excessive rain last month. Citrus fruit continued to mature, and trees benefited from the added soil moisture. Row crops and forages benefited from the moisture and mild temperatures. However, most crops still needed additional rain. Cabbage and onions were being harvested. The rain will also help pecan orchards that were affected by the drought. Sesame fields were progressing well with some beet armyworm pressure in some areas. Pasture and rangeland conditions improved over the past month and hay meadows continued to improve. Hay harvest should begin soon. Livestock conditions improved though producers were providing supplements to all livestock. Beef cattle supplementation decreased due to the improved green vegetation, range and pasture conditions, and prices remained extremely high at sale barns. Livestock auctions reported fewer numbers, and producers slowed herd culling. Some producers were still reporting low stock tank levels, but body condition scores in cattle were improving.
Source : tamu.edu