Potential for U.S. pork exports to Japan to increase $281M by 2028

May 15, 2023

Researchers with the USDA Economic Research Service are forecasting Japan's pork imports to increase between 3.6 and 13.9% by 2028 due to the country's trade agreements in place. Based upon the Global Trade Analysis Project model, the researchers estimate this uptick could lead to an additional $281 million of U.S. pork exports being shipped to Japan.

Japan currently produces 50% of the pork that it consumes through domestic production, however ERS points out that could soon change as domestic pork producers face increased competition from foreign competitors, putting downward pressure on Japan's pork industry and forcing producers out of the business. In the next six years, Japan's pork production is predicted to drop between 4.2 and 11.8%.

Authors Eric Davis, Ethan Sabala, Dylan Russell and Jayson Beckman note that changes in Japan's recent trade agreements could boost the competitiveness of trade partners in the country's pork market. Japan has ratified trade agreements with the United States, European Union, United Kingdom and Comprehensive as well as the Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership in place with Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore and Vietnam.

"This potential boost in foreign competitiveness could result in lower domestic production, higher import volumes, and thus increased availability of lower-cost foreign pork for Japanese consumers."

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