Pig outlook: Lean hog futures bulls see a glimmer of hope

May 01, 2023

June lean hog futures gave seen some price stabilization, including strong gains Wednesday. More solid price gains to end the week would be an early clue the hog market has bottomed out. The latest CME lean hog index is up 11 cents to $71.31 (as of April 25), marking consecutive days with modest gains. That’s the first back-to-back days with gains in six weeks. The futures rise came following Tuesday’s bearish monthly Cold Storage report from the USDA. Ending-March U.S. pork stocks at 533.9 million pounds were up about 12.7 million pounds from Feb. 28, despite the historical tendency for an 18.0-million-pound drawdown during March. The spring-summer outlook for the hog and pork markets could improve if grocers begin featuring pork more aggressively, especially as the grilling season is very close at hand.

Beef: Net sales of 9,500 MT for 2023 were down 50 percent from the previous week and 28 percent from the prior 4-week average.

Increases were primarily for Japan (2,400 MT, including decreases of 400 MT), South Korea (2,200 MT, including decreases of 400 MT), Canada (1,600 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), Mexico (500 MT), and China (500 MT, including decreases of 1,300 MT). Exports of 16,000 MT were unchanged from the previous week, but down 3 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to South Korea (4,100 MT), Japan (3,700 MT), China (3,000 MT), Mexico (1,300 MT), and Taiwan (1,300 MT).

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