Pig outlook: Lean hog futures bulls keeping price uptrend alive

The lean hog futures market Wednesday saw some profit-taking pressure amid fading cash fundamentals and a solid decline in pork cutout value this week. The latest CME lean hog index is down 23 cents to $110.02 as of Aug. 8. Thursday’s projected cash price is down 6 cents to $109.78. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote Wednesday was $108.99. The lean hog futures bulls are keeping alive a price uptrend on the daily chart for August futures. However, bulls need to show fresh power soon.

Weekly US pork export sales report

Pork: Net sales of 21,200 MT for 2025 were down 32 percent from the previous week and 19 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for Japan (6,500 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), Mexico (4,700 MT, including decreases of 600 MT), South Korea (3,500 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), Colombia (1,700 MT, including 100 MT switched from Guatemala and decreases of 100 MT), and Honduras (1,200 MT), were offset by reductions for Hong Kong (100 MT). Exports of 27,000 MT were down 4 percent from the previous week and 1 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Mexico (13,200 MT), Japan (3,500 MT), South Korea (2,300 MT), China (2,200 MT), and Colombia (1,400 MT).

USDA Monthly livestock report

LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The forecast for 2025 red meat and poultry production is reduced from last month. Beef production is lowered on reduced fed and non-fed cattle slaughter and lighter dressed weights. Pork production is reduced reflecting official data reported through the first half of the year, as well as a slower slaughter rate and reduced dressed weights in the third and fourth quarters.

The pork export forecast for 2025 is raised based on official data reported through June and no changes are made to 2026 pork exports. The broiler export forecast is also raised for 2025 based on data through June and is unchanged for 2026. The turkey export forecast for 2025 is raised on data through June and higher exports for the third quarter. The 2026 turkey export forecast is unchanged. Cattle price forecasts for 2025 are raised for both the third and fourth quarters based on recent price strength and resilient demand for beef. The higher cattle price forecasts are carried into 2026.

The 2025 hog price forecast is raised based on recent prices, with increases continuing into 2026 on tighter pork supplies. Broiler price forecasts for 2025 are reduced for the second half of the year based on recent price declines through early August, with reduced prices carrying into next year.