Pea, Lentil Ending Stocks Estimates Raised from January

Canadian dry pea stocks won’t be nearly as tight as expected at the end of the 2021-22 crop year, according to updated supply-demand estimates released Friday by Agriculture Canada.

Pea ending stocks for the current marketing year are now pegged at 150,000 tonnes, up 100,000 from the government’s January estimate, thanks mainly to an upward revision in the old-crop carryin.

Today’s supply-demand update reflects the Feb. 8 Statistics Canada grain stocks report. That report put total national pea stockpiles as of Dec. 31 at 1.629 million tonnes, down 42.5% from a year earlier. However, Ag Canada lowered its estimate of 2020-21 dry pea domestic use, which helped to raise the carryin for 2021-22 to 559,000 tonnes from 479,000 – a change which in turn boosted the 2021-22 ending stocks estimate.

This month’s upward revision in the 2021-22 ending stocks estimate lifts the dry pea stocks to use ratio to 6% - still tight but up from the January forecast of only 2%.

The 2021-22 lentil ending stocks forecast was also raised from January, up 25,000 tonnes to 75,000, as total expected domestic use was revised lower. However, that is still more than five times below the previous year’s ending stocks of 407,000 tonnes.

The Feb. 8 stocks report put national lentil stockpiles as of Dec. 31 at 1.182 million tonnes, down 670,000 or 36.1% from the previous year and the lowest since 826,000 in 2009.

In other changes, Ag Canada raised its 2021-22 flax ending stocks estimate by 5,000 tonnes to 35,000 as a reduction in the export forecast offset an increase in domestic use.

Mustard stocks were halved from January to just 5,000 tonnes, compared to 40,000 a year earlier, amid an uptick in expected exports.