Opportunity Land for Energy Crops

 

Pennsylvania has millions of acres of rich agricultural land but also hosts land that is barren, fallow/idle, degraded, and unprofitable. Unprofitable cropland is land in production that consistently does not return enough revenue to cover the costs invested in seeds, fertilizers, herbicides, fuel, labor, and other expenses. In a pilot study of 278 fields in Pennsylvania, researchers found just over 50% of the acres analyzed were in zones where economic losses occurred over multiple years and produced a negative return-on-investment (ROI). Barren, fallow/idle, degraded, and unprofitable land represent an opportunity for exploring alternative crops and land management to improve overall farm profits.

 

We can identify unprofitable cropland through precision agriculture, yield monitoring, and financial record keeping on individual farms, but satellite imagery and geospatial datasets can also be used to estimate unprofitable areas and other opportunity land to support farm decision making. Many producers already know which fields or sub-fields underperform, but satellite data can corroborate that knowledge, at high-resolutions and sub-field scales. One way to identify unprofitable cropland is to estimate annual crop yields from the normalized difference vegetation index or NDVI, a simple remote sensing indicator to observe plant growth. NDVI is calculated by subtracting the red (visible light) satellite image bands from the near-infrared band and dividing by their sum. Dense, healthy, or high-yielding vegetation absorbs most of the visible red light it receives and reflects higher amounts of near-infrared light. By measuring yields and observing NDVI over time, we can develop a relationship between yields and NDVI for annual and perennial crops, including for corn grain and corn silage. These relationships can be used to understand the historical behavior of a field or sub-field and predict future yields. Profitability can be estimated by multiplying estimated crop yields by market prices and subtracting known production costs or estimates from crop budgets like those in the Penn State Agronomy Guide. Given enough years of data, statistics and trend tests can be used to identify areas that may be consistently unprofitable or inconsistently profitable (risk-prone). Land where conventional crops like corn and soybean are consistently unprofitable, or where profits fluctuate a lot from year to year, may be more profitable with alternative crop rotations or land management. More data is always better than less, and satellite analyses are ideally validated against farm-specific measured yields when making decisions.

 

One set of alternative crops to consider for unprofitable cropland and other opportunity land areas is bioenergy crops. The United States' Renewable Fuel Standard is a 2007 law that aims to replace 30% of national petroleum consumption with 36 billion gallons of renewable fuels this decade, including from cellulosic biofuels made from perennial energy crops like switchgrass. Switchgrass is a tall, perennial, warm-season bunchgrass grown with a history of being planted for wildlife habitat, acid mine restoration, and conservation across the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. Switchgrass can also be grazed by livestock or harvested for hay, poultry bedding, erosion control socks, industrial absorbents, and bioenergy. Switchgrass can produce an annual harvest for more than 20 years after one seeding. There are many varieties of switchgrass, including upland ecotypes adapted to dry soils, lowland ecotypes adapted to flooded soil, and varieties capable of producing high yields with little or no fertilizer on marginal land. Switchgrass can reduce soil erosion and the loss of valuable nutrients, improve water quality for local fisheries, increase biodiversity and pollination, and sequester carbon. Pennsylvania currently has about 3,000 acres in commercial switchgrass production at average yields of 4-6 tons per acre. The bioenergy market is in its infancy, but demand for other uses is strong and some regional markets experience supply deficits. With a diversity of markets, resilient perennial stands, and deep roots to reduce erosion and runoff, switchgrass also has the potential to serve as a market-based solution to improving local farm profits alongside to environmental quality.Pennsylvania has millions of acres of rich agricultural land but also hosts land that is barren, fallow/idle, degraded, and unprofitable. Unprofitable cropland is land in production that consistently does not return enough revenue to cover the costs invested in seeds, fertilizers, herbicides, fuel, labor, and other expenses. In a pilot study of 278 fields in Pennsylvania, researchers found just over 50% of the acres analyzed were in zones where economic losses occurred over multiple years and produced a negative return-on-investment (ROI). Barren, fallow/idle, degraded, and unprofitable land represent an opportunity for exploring alternative crops and land management to improve overall farm profits.

 

We can identify unprofitable cropland through precision agriculture, yield monitoring, and financial record keeping on individual farms, but satellite imagery and geospatial datasets can also be used to estimate unprofitable areas and other opportunity land to support farm decision making. Many producers already know which fields or sub-fields underperform, but satellite data can corroborate that knowledge, at high-resolutions and sub-field scales. One way to identify unprofitable cropland is to estimate annual crop yields from the normalized difference vegetation index or NDVI, a simple remote sensing indicator to observe plant growth. NDVI is calculated by subtracting the red (visible light) satellite image bands from the near-infrared band and dividing by their sum. Dense, healthy, or high-yielding vegetation absorbs most of the visible red light it receives and reflects higher amounts of near-infrared light. By measuring yields and observing NDVI over time, we can develop a relationship between yields and NDVI for annual and perennial crops, including for corn grain and corn silage. These relationships can be used to understand the historical behavior of a field or sub-field and predict future yields. Profitability can be estimated by multiplying estimated crop yields by market prices and subtracting known production costs or estimates from crop budgets like those in the Penn State Agronomy Guide. Given enough years of data, statistics and trend tests can be used to identify areas that may be consistently unprofitable or inconsistently profitable (risk-prone). Land where conventional crops like corn and soybean are consistently unprofitable, or where profits fluctuate a lot from year to year, may be more profitable with alternative crop rotations or land management. More data is always better than less, and satellite analyses are ideally validated against farm-specific measured yields when making decisions.

 

One set of alternative crops to consider for unprofitable cropland and other opportunity land areas is bioenergy crops. The United States' Renewable Fuel Standard is a 2007 law that aims to replace 30% of national petroleum consumption with 36 billion gallons of renewable fuels this decade, including from cellulosic biofuels made from perennial energy crops like switchgrass. Switchgrass is a tall, perennial, warm-season bunchgrass grown with a history of being planted for wildlife habitat, acid mine restoration, and conservation across the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. Switchgrass can also be grazed by livestock or harvested for hay, poultry bedding, erosion control socks, industrial absorbents, and bioenergy. Switchgrass can produce an annual harvest for more than 20 years after one seeding. There are many varieties of switchgrass, including upland ecotypes adapted to dry soils, lowland ecotypes adapted to flooded soil, and varieties capable of producing high yields with little or no fertilizer on marginal land. Switchgrass can reduce soil erosion and the loss of valuable nutrients, improve water quality for local fisheries, increase biodiversity and pollination, and sequester carbon. Pennsylvania currently has about 3,000 acres in commercial switchgrass production at average yields of 4-6 tons per acre. The bioenergy market is in its infancy, but demand for other uses is strong and some regional markets experience supply deficits. With a diversity of markets, resilient perennial stands, and deep roots to reduce erosion and runoff, switchgrass also has the potential to serve as a market-based solution to improving local farm profits alongside to environmental quality.