Ontario Winter Wheat Acres Expected Lower

The numbers are not all in, but Ontario winter wheat acres for the 2024 harvest look to be significantly lower. 

With crop insurance deadlines mostly now past, Real Agriculture agronomist Peter Johnson on Monday estimated provincial winter wheat planted area at about 850,000 acres. If accurate, it would be more than 250,000 acres or roughly 23% below the 1.1 million Statistics Canada reported planted the previous year. 

In fact, it could be the lowest Ontario winter wheat planted area since the 2015 crop, when farmers got just 700,000 acres into the ground. 

“I hope I am low,” Johnson said of his estimate for 2024. 

Weather has been a major stumbling block for farmers this fall, with wet conditions also bogging down the soybean harvest. Delayed maturity and poor weather mean most of the Ontario corn crop remains out in the field as well. 

Meanwhile, Ontario producers are also looking at considerably weaker wheat prices.  

Ranulf Glanville, chief market analyst, DePutter, GrainFox, said prices for Soft Red wheat at the 2024 harvest have been around $7.50/bu at provincial elevators. That pales in comparison to a year ago, when prices at planting for the 2023 crop were at $10.50. Today’s prices are also down from two years ago, when they were running at around $8.50. 

“So, current prices for the 2024 harvest are not terrible but do not stack up well compared to the previous two falls,” Glanville said. 

Wheat prices also do not look great compared to new-crop soybeans, which can be forward contracted for the 2024 harvest at $16.50/bu at elevators, he added. 

Johnson admitted his planted area estimate at this point is still only a guess, adding that some producers are still trying to squeeze in a few more acres, even though it’s late. 

Glanville’s own estimate for 2024 Ontario winter wheat acres is around 900,000.