Mustard Expected to See Only Modest Acreage Gains in 2022

Soaring mustard prices will likely spur more Canadian acres in 2022, but the increase could prove to be relatively tepid.

“I do see an increase in mustard acres in Canada, but not in a very large irrational way,” said Walter Dyck, the general manager of Olds Products’ seed division. “(An increase) will be a lot more measured.”

Canadian farmers seeded 309,000 acres of mustard in 2021, with an early forecast from Agriculture Canada calling for a planted area near 370,000 acres for this year. Regardless of strong prices, Dyck said mustard still faces heavy competition from other commodities which have also seen significant price gains.

Old-crop Prairie mustard prices have shot sharply higher in the wake of last year’s drought which slashed production by about half to just 50,000 tonnes. Ending stocks for 2021-22 are forecast by Agriculture Canada to decline 88% year-over-year to only 5,000 tonnes. With supplies tight, Yellow mustard prices have risen to as high as $1.85/lb from about 42 cents the previous year. Brown and Oriental mustard have posted large increases as well.

New-crop mustard prices are well below old crop, but still historically attractive at around 70-75 cents/lb.

Dyck said that despite this year’s much lower supply, demand for mustard typically remains fairly constant – helping to support the market.

“Mustard has very high inelastic demand. Although demand doesn’t change from one year to the next regardless of price, the customers need mustard. There is no substitute for mustard,” he said.

One of the world’s largest exporters of mustard seed, Canada has enough mustard to satiate demand, Dyck said. However, countries which purchase Canadian mustard are now looking elsewhere, such as the US, to increase their own supply, he said.

“Those countries that import the mustard, they’re taking efforts to secure their requirements, and I think that will include buying from other mustard exporters.”