More Modest Decline Now Seen for 2024 Farm Cash Receipts

Still financially challenging no doubt, but this year may not be as bad for Canadian producers as originally expected.

As some farmers may remember, Farm Credit Canada (FCC) was projecting a 4.8% decline in 2024 farm cash receipts at the beginning of the year, primarily due to weaker commodity prices. However, Justin Shepherd, FCC senior business intelligence analyst, said this week the federal agriculture lender is now forecasting a more modest 1.9% fall in cash receipts. Much of the brightening – albeit still negative - farm cash receipt picture is due to expected stronger livestock returns, although a weaker Canadian dollar is adding to the upside as well, he said.

“We’ve seen pretty strong livestock growth this year, whether it’s on the beef side or dairy,” Shepherd said. “On the crop side, it’s been flatter. Since the start of the year, we’ve seen prices, some are up, and some are down.”

US farm income projections have improved as well. Back in February, the USDA forecast a steep 25.5% fall in American net farm income. However, an updated forecast released in September showed a more moderate 4.4% decrease.

Canadian farm cash receipts - which include crop and livestock revenues, as well as program payments – were reported by Statistics Canada at $47.4 billion through the first two quarters of this year (January-June), down $1.6 billion or 3.2% from the same period in 2023. Crop receipts for the first half of the year were down 11.4% to $25.3 billion - more than enough to blunt an 8.5% increase in livestock receipts to $19.2 billion and a 7.1% increase in program payments to $2.9 billion over the same period. StatsCan is scheduled to release its January-September farm cash receipt numbers on Tuesday

StatsCan will also update its 2023 farm income report on Tuesday, but back in June it reported total farm cash receipts for the year at $99.6 billion, a 4.4% increase from 2022.