Model-based principal field crop estimates, July 2024

In 2024, Canadian farmers are projected to produce more wheat, canola, oats, and soybeans, but less corn for grain and barley, compared with 2023, according to recent yield model estimates using satellite imagery and agroclimatic data. Increased production for almost all crops is expected to be driven by higher yields because of overall better growing conditions in Western Canada as of the end of July, compared with a year earlier. However, a lack of moisture and high temperatures in some parts of the Prairies continued to be a cause for concern.

Across parts of the Prairies, lower-than-average precipitation and prolonged high temperatures have resulted in a decline in crop conditions from the beginning of the season, although conditions were up in some areas compared with a year earlier. In Alberta, provincial reports indicated that more than half (55%) of the total crop was rated as being in good to excellent condition at the end of July, below the five-year average of 57%, but ahead of the same period in 2023. In Saskatchewan, dry conditions continued to be a concern. Provincial reports from Manitoba indicated that crop conditions in the province were generally good.

Quebec and the Atlantic provinces have experienced warmer weather and less rainfall than average since the beginning of the growing season, while in Ontario, excessive moisture continued to be a concern in some areas.

Statistics Canada has relied on proven satellite technology and agroclimatic data to model preliminary crop yields and production for several years. These methods have successfully been used to produce modelled estimates since 2016. Final harvested area estimates based on the November 2024 Field Crop Survey will be published on December 5, 2024.

Measurements of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index produced using satellite data indicate that overall plant health in the Prairie provinces ranged from much lower than normal to similar to normal at the end of July, indicating the possibility of yields ranging from much lower than normal to similar to normal.

Crop development in Eastern Canada generally ranged from lower than normal to similar to normal.

Wheat production is expected to increase as yields rise

Nationally, wheat production is projected to grow by 4.3% year over year to 34.4 million tonnes in 2024. The increase is expected to be led by higher yields, which are anticipated to rise by 5.9% to 48.5 bushels per acre. Harvested area is expected to decrease by 1.6% to 26.0 million acres.

Spring wheat production is expected to fall by 0.7% to 25.4 million tonnes. Spring wheat yields are anticipated to increase by 2.9% to 50.3 bushels per acre, while harvested area is expected to decrease by 3.4% to 18.5 million acres.

The anticipated increase in total wheat production is largely attributable to durum wheat. Harvested area is expected to increase by 5.3% to 6.2 million acres, while yields are anticipated to increase by 39.8% to 35.8 bushels per acre, contributing to higher anticipated durum wheat production (+47.3% to 6.0 million tonnes).

Wheat harvested area in Saskatchewan is projected to decrease by 0.6%, while yields are expected to rise by 9.0% to 42.2 bushels per acre, resulting in an 8.4% increase in production, to 15.9 million tonnes.

Wheat production in Alberta is projected to increase by 9.6% to 10.2 million tonnes, compared with 2023. This rise is anticipated to result from higher yields (+10.7% to 49.5 bushels per acre) offsetting lower harvested area, which is expected to fall by 1.1% to 7.6 million acres.

In Manitoba, wheat harvested area is expected to decline by 2.1% to 3.2 million acres, while yields are anticipated to decrease by 1.6% to 60.3 bushels per acre. Total wheat production is anticipated to fall by 3.7% year over year to 5.2 million tonnes.

Wheat production in Ontario (the majority of which is winter wheat) is projected to decrease by 16.6% year over year to 2.5 million tonnes on lower harvested acres (-11.6%) and lower yields (-5.5%).